Football · Poland III Liga · 18/10, 12:00
Prediction: Lech Poznan II vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Team pages: Lech Poznan II · Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
Lech Poznan II1.7
Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.1
1X2
Lech Poznan II
Draw
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Lech Poznan II
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lech Poznan II
3–3–0
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
(6 last)
- Lech Poznan II1-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-4Lech Poznan II
- Lech Poznan II1-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-3Lech Poznan II
- Lech Poznan II1-0Polonia Sroda Wlkp
- Polonia Sroda Wlkp1-1Lech Poznan II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lech Poznan II 1503 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1596
| Lech Poznan II | Draw | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 23% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 23% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1503 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Lech Poznan II: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lech Poznan II | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.9 | 3.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5 / 8.7 | 3.8 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan II 3–3–0 Polonia Sroda Wlkp
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Poland III Liga | Lech Poznan II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
| 31/08/25 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan II |
| 02/05/25 Poland III Liga | Lech Poznan II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
| 04/10/24 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan II |
| 14/02/24 Europe Friendlies | Lech Poznan II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
| 18/04/19 Poland III Liga | Polonia Sroda Wlkp | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lech Poznan II |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 2 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 23 |
| 4 | Wisloka Debica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | JKS Jaroslaw | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 20 | 17 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 10 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 16 |
| 11 | Wisla Krakow II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 13 | Star Starachowice | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lech Poznan II | Polonia Sroda Wlkp |
|---|---|---|
| Wda Swiecie | 1-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Elana Torun | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Notec Czarnkow | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Unia Swarzedz | 1-1 D | 4-3 W |
| Grom Nowy Staw | 2-4 L | 4-4 D |
| Gedania Gdansk | 3-2 W | 4-3 W |
| Lipno Steszew | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Blekitni Stargard | 2-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Chemik Bydgoszcz | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 3 L | 6 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lech Poznan II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga |
3-0 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Elana Torun Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/08 | Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga |
2-4 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Polonia Sroda Wlkp
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Elana Torun Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/09 | Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga |
2-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 28/08 | Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/08 | Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga |
4-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan II vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (47%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan II 31%, draw 23%, Polonia Sroda Wlkp 47%.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan II vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?
The model expects 3.8 goals (Lech Poznan II 1.7 · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2.1), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan II vs Polonia Sroda Wlkp?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.