Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Juventud Torremolinos CF vs Real Murcia

Team pages: Juventud Torremolinos CF · Real Murcia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Juventud Torremolinos CF1.2

Real Murcia1.54

1X2

28% 28% 44%

Juventud Torremolinos CF Draw Real Murcia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juventud Torremolinos CF 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Real Murcia 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Juventud Torremolinos CF 0–2 Real Murcia (2 last)

Juventud Torremolinos CF1-3Real Murcia
Real Murcia1-0Juventud Torremolinos CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juventud Torremolinos CF 1419 · Real Murcia 1543

	Juventud Torremolinos CF	Draw	Real Murcia
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Murcia (rating 1419 vs 1543).
H2H favours Real Murcia: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juventud Torremolinos CF	Real Murcia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.6	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
X	3.40 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.33 ★
2	1.80 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.11

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +13’	3.80	3.40	1.80
09:53 +16’	3.20▼	3.20▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +44’	3.16	3.23	2.14
11:09	3.15▼	3.28▲	2.13▼
12:50 +20’	3.14▼	3.32▲	2.12▼
23:29 +37’	3.14	3.33▲	2.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventud Torremolinos CF 0–0–2 Real Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Juventud Torremolinos CF	1-3 HT 0-2	Real Murcia
07/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	1-0 HT 1-0	Juventud Torremolinos CF

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	8	5	2	1	17	9	17
2	Real Zaragoza	8	5	2	1	16	10	17
3	Real Murcia	8	5	1	2	11	7	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	4	3	1	13	5	15
5	Real Jaen	8	4	3	1	12	8	15
6	Alcorcon	8	3	4	1	14	6	13
7	UD Ibiza	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
8	Hercules	8	4	1	3	6	7	13
9	Real Madrid B	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
10	Huesca	8	2	5	1	10	10	11
11	Gimnastic	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
12	Antequera	8	2	4	2	13	12	10
13	Algeciras CF	8	3	1	4	11	13	10
14	Atletico Madrid B	8	2	3	3	16	14	9
15	UE Sant Andreu	8	2	3	3	9	10	9
16	CE Europa	8	2	1	5	6	14	7
17	Aguilas	8	1	3	4	8	14	6
18	Teruel	8	1	2	5	3	14	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	1	1	6	5	9	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos CF	8	0	3	5	10	20	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juventud Torremolinos CF	Real Murcia
Gimnastic	2-2 D	2-0 W
Hercules	0-1 L	2-1 W
Real Zaragoza	3-4 L	0-0 D
Atletico Madrid B	2-2 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Murcia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juventud Torremolinos CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	4	2	D
10/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
03/10	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-4	0-5	0	1	L
26/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
20/09	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
13/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	3-4	5	7	L
05/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/05	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-3	6	7	L
16/05	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

Real Murcia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
11/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	13	W
07/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
04/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	0-4	7	5	L
06/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	1	4	W
29/08	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
24/05	Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
16/05	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juventud Torremolinos CF vs Real Murcia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Murcia win (44%). Probabilities: Juventud Torremolinos CF 28%, draw 28%, Real Murcia 44%.

How many goals are expected in Juventud Torremolinos CF vs Real Murcia?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Juventud Torremolinos CF 1.2 · Real Murcia 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juventud Torremolinos CF vs Real Murcia?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.