Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Antequera vs Real Murcia

Team pages: Antequera · Real Murcia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Antequera1.34

Real Murcia1.24

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Antequera Draw Real Murcia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Antequera 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Real Murcia 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Antequera 2–2–2 Real Murcia (6 last)

Real Murcia2-3Antequera
Antequera0-2Real Murcia
Real Murcia1-1Antequera
Real Murcia0-0Antequera
Antequera2-1Real Murcia
Antequera0-2Real Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antequera 1502 · Real Murcia 1514

	Antequera	Draw	Real Murcia
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antequera	Real Murcia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +17’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antequera 2–2–2 Real Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	2-3 HT 1-2	Antequera
22/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	0-2 HT 0-1	Real Murcia
30/10/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Murcia	1-1 HT 1-0	Antequera
10/05/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	0-0 HT 0-0	Antequera
12/01/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	2-1 HT 2-0	Real Murcia
12/05/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	0-2 HT 0-1	Real Murcia

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
2	Real Zaragoza	9	6	2	1	17	10	20
3	Real Jaen	9	4	4	1	13	9	16
4	Real Murcia	9	5	1	3	11	8	16
5	FC Cartagena	9	4	3	2	14	9	15
6	Alcorcon	9	3	5	1	17	9	14
7	Gimnastic	9	4	2	3	15	14	14
8	UD Ibiza	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Algeciras CF	9	4	1	4	13	13	13
10	Hercules	9	4	1	4	8	11	13
11	Real Madrid B	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
11	Huesca	9	2	6	1	11	11	12
13	Antequera	9	2	5	2	14	13	11
14	Atletico Madrid B	9	2	4	3	17	15	10
15	UE Sant Andreu	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	2	1	6	7	10	7
17	Aguilas	9	1	4	4	9	15	7
18	CE Europa	9	2	1	6	6	15	7
19	Juventud Torremolinos CF	9	1	3	5	11	20	6
20	Teruel	9	1	3	5	4	15	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antequera	Real Murcia
FC Cartagena	1-1 D	0-1 L
Real Zaragoza	0-1 L	0-0 D
Juventud Torremolinos CF	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Antequera (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antequera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
11/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
04/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
27/09	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
05/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-2	3-2	5	9	W
23/05	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	3-1	3	7	W

Real Murcia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
11/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	13	W
07/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
04/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	0-4	7	5	L
06/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	1	4	W
29/08	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
24/05	Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antequera vs Real Murcia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antequera win (38%). Probabilities: Antequera 38%, draw 29%, Real Murcia 33%.

How many goals are expected in Antequera vs Real Murcia?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Antequera 1.34 · Real Murcia 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Antequera vs Real Murcia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.