Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 25/10, 18:45

Prediction: Gimnastic vs Hercules

Team pages: Gimnastic · Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Gimnastic1.09

Hercules1.22

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Gimnastic Draw Hercules

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnastic 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLLLDW

Hercules 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Gimnastic 1–3–1 Hercules (5 last)

Hercules1-1Gimnastic
Gimnastic2-2Hercules
Gimnastic0-2Hercules
Hercules0-3Gimnastic
Gimnastic0-0Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnastic 1484 · Hercules 1502

	Gimnastic	Draw	Hercules
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnastic	Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.82
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.58 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +16’	2.30	3.20	2.75
10:17 +3’	2.75▲	3.20	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +2’	2.97	2.81	2.39
09:26 +54’	3.03▲	2.86▲	2.43▲
16:29 +12’	2.82▼	2.86	2.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnastic 1–3–1 Hercules

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	1-1 HT 0-0	Gimnastic
30/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Gimnastic	2-2 HT 2-1	Hercules
22/12/19 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Gimnastic	0-2 HT 0-1	Hercules
08/02/15 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Hercules	0-3	Gimnastic
21/09/14 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Gimnastic	0-0	Hercules

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	8	5	2	1	17	9	17
2	Real Zaragoza	8	5	2	1	16	10	17
3	Real Murcia	8	5	1	2	11	7	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	4	3	1	13	5	15
5	Real Jaen	8	4	3	1	12	8	15
6	Alcorcon	8	3	4	1	14	6	13
7	UD Ibiza	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
8	Hercules	8	4	1	3	6	7	13
9	Real Madrid B	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
10	Huesca	8	2	5	1	10	10	11
11	Gimnastic	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
12	Antequera	8	2	4	2	13	12	10
13	Algeciras CF	8	3	1	4	11	13	10
14	Atletico Madrid B	8	2	3	3	16	14	9
15	UE Sant Andreu	8	2	3	3	9	10	9
16	CE Europa	8	2	1	5	6	14	7
17	Aguilas	8	1	3	4	8	14	6
18	Teruel	8	1	2	5	3	14	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	1	1	6	5	9	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos CF	8	0	3	5	10	20	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnastic	Hercules
Atletico Madrid B	2-1 W	0-2 L
Juventud Torremolinos CF	2-2 D	1-0 W
Real Murcia	0-2 L	1-2 L
UE Sant Andreu	1-2 L	1-0 W
Algeciras CF	4-2 W	0-2 L
CE Europa	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hercules (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnastic

WDWDWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	8	8	D
04/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
26/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-3	0-3	2	5	L
11/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-1	4-2	3	5	W
05/09	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/08	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/05	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/05	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Hercules

WDLLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	11	L
12/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	10	8	W
03/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
12/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
06/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
29/08	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
23/05	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
16/05	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnastic vs Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hercules win (39%). Probabilities: Gimnastic 32%, draw 29%, Hercules 39%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnastic vs Hercules?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Gimnastic 1.09 · Hercules 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnastic vs Hercules?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.