Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 30/10, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid B vs Alcorcon

Team pages: Atletico Madrid B · Alcorcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Atletico Madrid B1.32

Alcorcon1.32

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Atletico Madrid B Draw Alcorcon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid B 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLDLD

Alcorcon 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWWLDD

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid B 3–2–0 Alcorcon (5 last)

Atletico Madrid B0-0Alcorcon
Alcorcon0-1Atletico Madrid B
Atletico Madrid B2-2Alcorcon
Atletico Madrid B2-1Alcorcon
Alcorcon2-3Atletico Madrid B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid B 1494 · Alcorcon 1533

	Atletico Madrid B	Draw	Alcorcon
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid B: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid B	Alcorcon
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +4’	2.50	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:25 +34’	2.60	3.52	2.40
00:08 +1’	2.59▼	3.60▲	2.38▼
01:14 +1’	2.55▼	3.74▲	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid B 3–2–0 Alcorcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Atletico Madrid B	0-0 HT 0-0	Alcorcon
16/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid B
16/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Atletico Madrid B	2-2 HT 1-2	Alcorcon
26/01/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Atletico Madrid B	2-1 HT 0-0	Alcorcon
14/09/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	2-3 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid B

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
2	Real Zaragoza	9	6	2	1	17	10	20
3	Real Jaen	9	4	4	1	13	9	16
4	Real Murcia	9	5	1	3	11	8	16
5	FC Cartagena	9	4	3	2	14	9	15
6	Alcorcon	9	3	5	1	17	9	14
7	Gimnastic	9	4	2	3	15	14	14
8	UD Ibiza	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Algeciras CF	9	4	1	4	13	13	13
10	Hercules	9	4	1	4	8	11	13
11	Real Madrid B	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
11	Huesca	9	2	6	1	11	11	12
13	Antequera	9	2	5	2	14	13	11
14	Atletico Madrid B	9	2	4	3	17	15	10
15	UE Sant Andreu	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	2	1	6	7	10	7
17	Aguilas	9	1	4	4	9	15	7
18	CE Europa	9	2	1	6	6	15	7
19	Juventud Torremolinos CF	9	1	3	5	11	20	6
20	Teruel	9	1	3	5	4	15	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Madrid B	Alcorcon
Gimnastic	1-2 L	3-0 W
Real Madrid B	2-3 L	2-1 W
Huesca	0-0 D	1-1 D
Juventud Torremolinos CF	2-2 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alcorcon (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Madrid B

WDWWDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
18/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
11/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	4-4	3	5	D
02/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
25/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
19/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/09	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
06/09	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
30/08	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
23/05	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-1	3-1	7	2	W

Alcorcon

DDDDWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-3	7	8	D
16/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
10/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	9	11	L
03/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
27/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
20/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
12/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
30/08	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
23/05	Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid B vs Alcorcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid B win (36%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid B 36%, draw 28%, Alcorcon 36%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid B vs Alcorcon?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Atletico Madrid B 1.32 · Alcorcon 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid B vs Alcorcon?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.