Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: Alcorcon vs Real Jaen

Team pages: Alcorcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Alcorcon1.81

Real Jaen0.93

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Alcorcon Draw Real Jaen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcorcon 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWLDDD

Real Jaen 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDDWDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcorcon 1523 · Real Jaen 1547

	Alcorcon	Draw	Real Jaen
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcorcon	Real Jaen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +8’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
2	Real Zaragoza	10	6	3	1	19	12	21
3	Real Jaen	10	5	4	1	16	11	19
4	Real Murcia	10	6	1	3	12	8	19
5	UD Ibiza	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
6	Hercules	10	5	1	4	10	11	16
7	Alcorcon	10	3	6	1	18	10	15
8	FC Cartagena	10	4	3	3	14	11	15
9	Real Madrid B	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
9	Huesca	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
11	Gimnastic	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
12	Algeciras CF	10	4	1	5	15	16	13
13	UE Sant Andreu	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
14	Atletico Madrid B	10	2	5	3	18	16	11
15	Antequera	10	2	5	3	14	14	11
16	Aguilas	10	1	5	4	9	15	8
17	Rayo Majadahonda	10	2	1	7	7	12	7
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	10	1	4	5	11	20	7
19	CE Europa	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
20	Teruel	10	1	3	6	4	17	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcorcon	Real Jaen
Atletico Madrid B	1-1 D	1-1 D
UD Ibiza	3-3 D	2-1 W
Huesca	1-1 D	2-2 D
Teruel	0-1 L	1-0 W
Antequera	1-1 D	0-2 L
CE Europa	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 5 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Jaen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcorcon

DDDWWWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
25/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-3	7	8	D
16/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
10/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	9	11	L
03/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
27/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
20/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
12/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
30/08	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	3	4	D

Real Jaen

WDWWLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
18/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
03/10	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
27/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
06/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-2	2-2	2	5	D
30/08	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	3-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcorcon vs Real Jaen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcorcon win (57%). Probabilities: Alcorcon 57%, draw 25%, Real Jaen 18%.

How many goals are expected in Alcorcon vs Real Jaen?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Alcorcon 1.81 · Real Jaen 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcorcon vs Real Jaen?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.