Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid B vs Teruel

Team pages: Atletico Madrid B · Teruel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Atletico Madrid B1.9

Teruel1.01

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Atletico Madrid B Draw Teruel

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid B 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDLDDL

Teruel 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid B 1–1–0 Teruel (2 last)

Teruel0-0Atletico Madrid B
Atletico Madrid B3-0Teruel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid B 1486 · Teruel 1433

	Atletico Madrid B	Draw	Teruel
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid B (rating 1486 vs 1433).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid B	Teruel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	0.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +8’	1.57	3.70	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid B 1–1–0 Teruel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Teruel	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid B
30/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Atletico Madrid B	3-0 HT 0-0	Teruel

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Madrid B	Teruel
Alcorcon	1-1 D	1-0 W
Real Jaen	1-1 D	0-1 L
Real Zaragoza	4-4 D	1-4 L
Villarreal B	1-3 L	0-2 L
Huesca	0-0 D	1-1 D
Real Murcia	4-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid B (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Madrid B

WWDLLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
30/10	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
18/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
11/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	4-4	3	5	D
02/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
25/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
19/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/09	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
06/09	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	6	W

Teruel

LLLDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
31/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
24/10	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
27/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
12/09	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
06/09	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-4	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid B vs Teruel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid B win (57%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid B 57%, draw 24%, Teruel 19%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid B vs Teruel?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Atletico Madrid B 1.9 · Teruel 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid B vs Teruel?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.