Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 14/11, 21:00

Prediction: Real Jaen vs Real Zaragoza

Team pages: Real Jaen · Real Zaragoza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Real Jaen1.34

Real Zaragoza1.58

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Real Jaen Draw Real Zaragoza

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Jaen 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDWDWL

Real Zaragoza 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Jaen 1521 · Real Zaragoza 1599

	Real Jaen	Draw	Real Zaragoza
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Zaragoza (rating 1521 vs 1599).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Jaen	Real Zaragoza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.8	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.25

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +7’	2.90	3.25	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Jaen	Real Zaragoza
Atletico Madrid B	1-1 D	4-4 D
Villarreal B	3-3 D	2-2 D
Antequera	0-2 L	1-0 W
UD Ibiza	2-1 W	2-0 W
Teruel	1-0 W	4-1 W
Huesca	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Zaragoza (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Jaen

DWWLDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-4	4	6	L
02/11	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
18/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
03/10	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
27/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
06/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-2	2-2	2	5	D

Real Zaragoza

WWWWWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
23/10	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
18/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
11/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	4-4	6	5	D
04/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
25/09	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
20/09	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	4-3	5	7	W
05/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Jaen vs Real Zaragoza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Zaragoza win (42%). Probabilities: Real Jaen 31%, draw 27%, Real Zaragoza 42%.

How many goals are expected in Real Jaen vs Real Zaragoza?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Real Jaen 1.34 · Real Zaragoza 1.58), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Jaen vs Real Zaragoza?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.