Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 18:45

Prediction: Real Murcia vs Alcorcon

Team pages: Real Murcia · Alcorcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Real Murcia1.23

Alcorcon1.16

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Real Murcia Draw Alcorcon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Murcia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDLWD

Alcorcon 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLDDDW

Head-to-head

Real Murcia 2–1–2 Alcorcon (5 last)

Alcorcon1-0Real Murcia
Real Murcia2-1Alcorcon
Alcorcon2-1Real Murcia
Real Murcia3-1Alcorcon
Real Murcia1-1Alcorcon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Murcia 1514 · Alcorcon 1534

	Real Murcia	Draw	Alcorcon
Our model	36%	30%	33%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Murcia	Alcorcon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +46’	2.40	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Murcia 2–1–2 Alcorcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Murcia
30/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	2-1 HT 1-0	Alcorcon
20/04/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	2-1 HT 0-0	Real Murcia
06/10/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	3-1 HT 0-0	Alcorcon
10/08/22 Europe Friendlies	Real Murcia	1-1 HT 0-0	Alcorcon

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Murcia	Alcorcon
Antequera	1-0 W	1-1 D
Juventud Torremolinos CF	0-1 L	5-0 W
Gimnastic	2-0 W	3-0 W
CE Europa	2-1 W	0-0 D
Atletico Madrid B	0-4 L	1-1 D
Teruel	4-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Murcia

WLWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
01/11	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
11/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	13	W
07/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
04/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	0-4	7	5	L
06/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	1	4	W

Alcorcon

DDWWWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	4-3	7	6	W
30/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
25/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-3	7	8	D
16/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
10/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	9	11	L
03/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
27/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
20/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
12/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Murcia vs Alcorcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Murcia win (37%). Probabilities: Real Murcia 37%, draw 29%, Alcorcon 34%.

How many goals are expected in Real Murcia vs Alcorcon?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Real Murcia 1.23 · Alcorcon 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Murcia vs Alcorcon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.