Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena

Team pages: UD Ibiza · FC Cartagena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

UD Ibiza1.77

FC Cartagena1.2

1X2

49% 26% 24%

UD Ibiza Draw FC Cartagena

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Ibiza 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWDWD

FC Cartagena 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWLLD

Head-to-head

UD Ibiza 3–2–1 FC Cartagena (6 last)

UD Ibiza3-1FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena1-4UD Ibiza
UD Ibiza2-2FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena2-0UD Ibiza
UD Ibiza1-1FC Cartagena
UD Ibiza2-1FC Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Ibiza 1564 · FC Cartagena 1480

	UD Ibiza	Draw	FC Cartagena
Our model	50%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD Ibiza (rating 1564 vs 1480).
H2H favours UD Ibiza: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Ibiza	FC Cartagena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +5’	1.83	3.30	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Ibiza 3–2–1 FC Cartagena

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	UD Ibiza	3-1 HT 2-1	FC Cartagena
11/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	FC Cartagena	1-4 HT 1-2	UD Ibiza
29/01/23 Spain Segunda	UD Ibiza	2-2 HT 1-2	FC Cartagena
16/10/22 Spain Segunda	FC Cartagena	2-0 HT 0-0	UD Ibiza
26/07/22 Europe Friendlies	UD Ibiza	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Cartagena
12/02/22 Spain Segunda	UD Ibiza	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Cartagena

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Ibiza	FC Cartagena
CE Europa	3-0 W	3-0 W
Aguilas	2-1 W	4-1 W
Real Madrid B	1-1 D	0-2 L
Villarreal B	1-0 W	1-4 L
Real Zaragoza	0-2 L	0-1 L
UE Sant Andreu	2-0 W	2-2 D
Rayo Majadahonda	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UD Ibiza (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Ibiza

WWLLWDWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
30/10	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
25/10	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	3-3	2	8	D
17/10	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
09/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
04/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
25/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
19/09	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
05/09	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	8	5	W

FC Cartagena

DDLWWDWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	10	9	D
31/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	0-2	14	8	L
25/10	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-4	8	2	L
16/10	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
11/10	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
07/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
03/10	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
20/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
05/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	13	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Ibiza win (49%). Probabilities: UD Ibiza 49%, draw 26%, FC Cartagena 24%.

How many goals are expected in UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena?

The model expects 2.97 goals (UD Ibiza 1.77 · FC Cartagena 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Ibiza vs FC Cartagena?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.