Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Algeciras CF vs Antequera

Team pages: Algeciras CF · Antequera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Algeciras CF1.44

Antequera1.17

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Algeciras CF Draw Antequera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Algeciras CF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWLD

Antequera 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDDLDLW

Head-to-head

Algeciras CF 3–1–2 Antequera (6 last)

Antequera2-0Algeciras CF
Algeciras CF1-0Antequera
Antequera1-3Algeciras CF
Algeciras CF1-1Antequera
Algeciras CF2-3Antequera
Antequera0-1Algeciras CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Algeciras CF 1500 · Antequera 1511

	Algeciras CF	Draw	Antequera
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Algeciras CF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Algeciras CF	Antequera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +14’	2.10	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Algeciras CF 3–1–2 Antequera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	2-0 HT 2-0	Algeciras CF
08/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Algeciras CF	1-0 HT 1-0	Antequera
22/03/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	1-3 HT 0-2	Algeciras CF
21/12/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Algeciras CF	1-1 HT 0-1	Antequera
20/04/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Algeciras CF	2-3 HT 0-2	Antequera
03/12/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	0-1 HT 0-1	Algeciras CF

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Algeciras CF	Antequera
Real Murcia	1-1 D	0-1 L
Real Jaen	2-3 L	2-0 W
Real Madrid B	2-0 W	2-3 L
Rayo Majadahonda	1-0 W	3-1 W
Villarreal B	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Antequera (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Algeciras CF

LLDWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
02/11	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
17/10	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	1	11	W
11/10	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
04/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
26/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
20/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	9	D
11/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	2-4	3	5	L
04/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	4	8	L

Antequera

LDDWDDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
01/11	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
24/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
11/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
04/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
27/09	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
05/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Algeciras CF vs Antequera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Algeciras CF win (42%). Probabilities: Algeciras CF 42%, draw 28%, Antequera 30%.

How many goals are expected in Algeciras CF vs Antequera?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Algeciras CF 1.44 · Antequera 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Algeciras CF vs Antequera?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.