Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Aguilas vs Gimnastic

Team pages: Gimnastic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Aguilas1.54

Gimnastic0.99

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Aguilas Draw Gimnastic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLDLDD

Gimnastic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas 1448 · Gimnastic 1496

	Aguilas	Draw	Gimnastic
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	29%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnastic (rating 1448 vs 1496).
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas	Gimnastic
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.89
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	3.10 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +3’	2.10	3.10	3.10
10:13 +5’	2.00▼	3.10	3.30▲
15:29 +8’	1.83▼	3.20▲	3.75▲
18:28 +3’	1.80▼	3.20	4.00▲
17:53 +3’	1.83▲	3.20	3.75▼
16:04 +5’	1.83	3.10▼	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +5’	1.85	3.32	4.12
18:08 +23’	1.87▲	3.53▲	3.74▼
19:58 +9’	1.85▼	3.58▲	3.73▼
12:00 +37’	1.89▲	3.44▼	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
2	Real Zaragoza	10	6	3	1	19	12	21
3	Real Jaen	10	5	4	1	16	11	19
4	Real Murcia	10	6	1	3	12	8	19
5	UD Ibiza	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
6	Hercules	10	5	1	4	10	11	16
7	Alcorcon	10	3	6	1	18	10	15
8	FC Cartagena	10	4	3	3	14	11	15
9	Real Madrid B	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
9	Huesca	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
11	Gimnastic	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
12	Algeciras CF	10	4	1	5	15	16	13
13	UE Sant Andreu	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
14	Atletico Madrid B	10	2	5	3	18	16	11
15	Antequera	10	2	5	3	14	14	11
16	Aguilas	10	1	5	4	9	15	8
17	Rayo Majadahonda	10	2	1	7	7	12	7
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	10	1	4	5	11	20	7
19	CE Europa	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
20	Teruel	10	1	3	6	4	17	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas	Gimnastic
Juventud Torremolinos CF	0-0 D	2-2 D
Huesca	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Cartagena	1-4 L	0-0 D
Hercules	0-1 L	4-2 W
Algeciras CF	1-1 D	4-2 W
UE Sant Andreu	0-2 L	1-2 L
Alcorcon	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnastic (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas

DLWDLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
24/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
17/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
10/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
03/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-4	1-4	5	3	L
26/09	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
12/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
05/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
30/08	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	6	4	D

Gimnastic

WDWLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
25/10	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-1	4-2	3	4	W
18/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	8	8	D
04/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
26/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-3	0-3	2	5	L
11/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-1	4-2	3	5	W
05/09	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/08	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas vs Gimnastic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas win (49%). Probabilities: Aguilas 49%, draw 28%, Gimnastic 23%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas vs Gimnastic?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Aguilas 1.54 · Gimnastic 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas vs Gimnastic?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.