Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 08/11, 20:30
Prediction: Real Murcia vs Algeciras CF
Team pages: Real Murcia · Algeciras CF
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Real Murcia1.54
Algeciras CF0.89
1X2
Real Murcia
Draw
Algeciras CF
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Murcia
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Algeciras CF
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Murcia
3–1–2
Algeciras CF
(6 last)
- Real Murcia0-2Algeciras CF
- Algeciras CF1-0Real Murcia
- Real Murcia2-1Algeciras CF
- Algeciras CF1-1Real Murcia
- Algeciras CF0-1Real Murcia
- Real Murcia1-0Algeciras CF
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Murcia 1526 · Algeciras CF 1505
| Real Murcia | Draw | Algeciras CF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Murcia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Murcia | Algeciras CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.4 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 6.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Murcia 3–1–2 Algeciras CF
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Algeciras CF |
| 28/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Algeciras CF | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 24/05/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Algeciras CF |
| 16/11/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Algeciras CF | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Real Murcia |
| 07/04/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Algeciras CF | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Real Murcia |
| 15/10/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Algeciras CF |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Villarreal B | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Jaen | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | UD Ibiza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Cartagena | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 8 | Hercules | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid B | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| 10 | Huesca | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Antequera | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 12 | Gimnastic | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 13 | UE Sant Andreu | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 14 | Algeciras CF | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid B | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 11 |
| 16 | Aguilas | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 17 | Rayo Majadahonda | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 18 | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
| 19 | CE Europa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 7 |
| 20 | Teruel | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Murcia | Algeciras CF |
|---|---|---|
| Juventud Torremolinos CF | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Rayo Majadahonda | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Cartagena | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Gimnastic | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| CE Europa | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hercules | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Murcia (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Murcia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 13 | W |
| 07/10 | FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Algeciras CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 11 | W |
| 11/10 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/10 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 26/09 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 11/09 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Murcia vs Algeciras CF?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Murcia win (52%). Probabilities: Real Murcia 52%, draw 27%, Algeciras CF 21%.
How many goals are expected in Real Murcia vs Algeciras CF?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Real Murcia 1.54 · Algeciras CF 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Murcia vs Algeciras CF?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.