Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Real Madrid B vs Hercules

Team pages: Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Real Madrid B1.46

Hercules1

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Real Madrid B Draw Hercules

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWDWLW

Hercules 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Real Madrid B 1–1–0 Hercules (2 last)

Hercules1-1Real Madrid B
Real Madrid B1-0Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid B 1514 · Hercules 1503

	Real Madrid B	Draw	Hercules
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	48%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid B	Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.96 ★
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.59

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +3’	1.67	3.50	4.33
10:12 +9’	1.75▲	3.40▼	3.90▼
15:36 +10’	1.85▲	3.40	3.60▼
17:15 +6’	1.90▲	3.40	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +54’	2.03	3.32	3.44
12:19 +14’	2.00▼	3.32	3.51▲
23:09 +30’	2.00	3.34▲	3.51
16:53 +28’	1.96▼	3.37▲	3.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid B 1–1–0 Hercules

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Madrid B
28/09/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Madrid B	1-0 HT 0-0	Hercules

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal B	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
2	Real Zaragoza	10	6	3	1	19	12	21
3	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
4	Real Murcia	10	6	1	3	12	8	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
7	Hercules	10	5	1	4	10	11	16
8	FC Cartagena	10	4	3	3	14	11	15
9	Real Madrid B	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
9	Huesca	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
11	Gimnastic	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
12	Algeciras CF	10	4	1	5	15	16	13
13	UE Sant Andreu	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
14	Atletico Madrid B	10	2	5	3	18	16	11
15	Antequera	10	2	5	3	14	14	11
16	Aguilas	10	1	5	4	9	15	8
17	Rayo Majadahonda	10	2	1	7	7	12	7
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	10	1	4	5	11	20	7
19	CE Europa	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
20	Teruel	10	1	3	6	4	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid B	Hercules
Algeciras CF	0-2 L	0-2 L
Atletico Madrid B	3-2 W	0-2 L
UE Sant Andreu	1-1 D	1-0 W
Aguilas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Juventud Torremolinos CF	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid B

DWLDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-0	1	8	W
25/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
18/10	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-2	2	7	W
09/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
02/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
27/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
23/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
05/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
31/08	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	13	5	D

Hercules

LLWWWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
25/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-4	2-4	9	4	L
17/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	11	L
12/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	10	8	W
03/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
12/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
06/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
29/08	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid B vs Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid B win (47%). Probabilities: Real Madrid B 47%, draw 28%, Hercules 25%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid B vs Hercules?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Real Madrid B 1.46 · Hercules 1), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid B vs Hercules?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.