Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/08, 23:30

Prediction: Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Guarani Asuncion · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Guarani Asuncion1.1

Sportivo Ameliano0.86

1X2

41% 32% 28%

Guarani Asuncion Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani Asuncion 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWDLD

Sportivo Ameliano 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Guarani Asuncion 2–2–2 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion1-0Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-0Guarani Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano1-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion4-1Sportivo Ameliano
Guarani Asuncion1-3Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano2-0Guarani Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani Asuncion 1479 · Sportivo Ameliano 1483

	Guarani Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
Our model	40%	34%	27%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.15
2	2.88 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.52 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +5’	2.25	3.00	2.88
16:27 +5’	2.15▼	3.00	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +1’	2.26	3.08	3.24
01:34	2.28▲	3.11▲	3.27▲
16:32 +1’	2.15▼	3.15▲	3.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani Asuncion 2–2–2 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Ameliano
16/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
12/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
31/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	4-1 HT 2-1	Sportivo Ameliano
19/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-3 HT 0-3	Sportivo Ameliano
11/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	2-3 L	1-1 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 L	3-1 W
Cerro Porteno	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Ameliano (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani Asuncion

LDWLLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
15/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
09/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
26/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
16/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
12/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Sportivo Ameliano

DWLLDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
16/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
24/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	0	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guarani Asuncion win (41%). Probabilities: Guarani Asuncion 41%, draw 32%, Sportivo Ameliano 28%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Guarani Asuncion 1.1 · Sportivo Ameliano 0.86), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.