Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aveley vs Chatham Town

Team pages: Aveley · Chatham Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Aveley1.62

Chatham Town1.54

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Aveley Draw Chatham Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Aveley 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLLLD

Chatham Town 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Aveley 1–1–1 Chatham Town (3 last)

Chatham Town0-1Aveley
Aveley0-2Chatham Town
Aveley1-1Chatham Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aveley 1483 · Chatham Town 1516

	Aveley	Draw	Chatham Town
Our model	39%	26%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aveley	Chatham Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.3	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +17’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 1–1–1 Chatham Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Chatham Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Aveley
23/08/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	0-2	Chatham Town
06/03/23 England Isthmian Cup	Aveley	1-1 HT 1-1	Chatham Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	11	9	0	2	30	13	27
2	Lewes	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
3	Welling	11	8	0	3	20	10	24
4	Dartford	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
5	Carshalton Ath	13	7	0	6	19	22	21
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	10	4	5	1	18	11	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
11	Chatham Town	9	5	0	4	19	13	15
12	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
13	Cheshunt	11	3	5	3	11	14	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	4	2	4	16	20	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
16	Aveley	11	3	2	6	18	19	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
18	AFC Whyteleafe	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
19	Maldon Tiptree FC	12	3	0	9	15	33	9
20	Three Bridges	11	2	2	7	20	31	8
21	Whitehawk	11	1	2	8	11	26	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	1	1	8	8	26	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aveley	Chatham Town
Dulwich	0-2 L	3-1 W
Wingate & Finchley	3-4 L	2-3 L
Lewes	0-2 L	3-2 W
Three Bridges	5-1 W	3-1 W
Whitehawk	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chatham Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aveley

LWWLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/09	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
14/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	3-4	11	6	L
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L

Chatham Town

LWWWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	Berkhamsted England FA Trophy	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
29/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
08/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aveley vs Chatham Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aveley win (39%). Probabilities: Aveley 39%, draw 25%, Chatham Town 36%.

How many goals are expected in Aveley vs Chatham Town?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Aveley 1.62 · Chatham Town 1.54), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aveley vs Chatham Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.