Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 21/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Whyteleafe vs Burgess Hill Town

Team pages: AFC Whyteleafe · Burgess Hill Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

AFC Whyteleafe1.66

Burgess Hill Town1.6

1X2

39% 25% 36%

AFC Whyteleafe Draw Burgess Hill Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Whyteleafe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLLWWW

Burgess Hill Town 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWWDWL

Head-to-head

AFC Whyteleafe 0–2 Burgess Hill Town (2 last)

Burgess Hill Town3-0AFC Whyteleafe
Burgess Hill Town2-1AFC Whyteleafe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Whyteleafe 1470 · Burgess Hill Town 1547

	AFC Whyteleafe	Draw	Burgess Hill Town
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgess Hill Town (rating 1470 vs 1547).
H2H favours Burgess Hill Town: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Whyteleafe	Burgess Hill Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:20 +14’	2.30	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Whyteleafe 0–0–2 Burgess Hill Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/08/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	3-0	AFC Whyteleafe
18/11/25 England Isthmian Cup	Burgess Hill Town	2-1 HT 1-1	AFC Whyteleafe

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	12	9	0	3	24	12	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	12	8	0	4	19	14	24
5	Carshalton Ath	14	7	1	6	21	24	22
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	11	4	5	2	20	15	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	11	5	2	4	20	16	17
11	Wingate & Finchley	11	5	2	4	20	21	17
12	Chatham Town	10	5	0	5	19	14	15
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	13	4	3	6	20	22	15
15	Cheshunt	12	3	6	3	12	15	15
16	Aveley	12	4	2	6	19	19	14
17	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
19	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
20	Three Bridges	12	2	3	7	23	34	9
21	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	1	1	9	9	30	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Whyteleafe	Burgess Hill Town
Dartford	2-1 W	2-1 W
Whitehawk	5-0 W	1-1 D
Maldon Tiptree FC	2-1 W	4-1 W
Welling	0-1 L	2-4 L
Leatherhead	0-0 D	2-2 D
Ramsgate	1-5 L	2-2 D
Cheshunt	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AFC Whyteleafe

DLWDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
14/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
10/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
30/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/09	Whitehawk England FA Trophy	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/09	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Burgess Hill Town

DDWDDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
13/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Winslow Utd England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
22/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Whyteleafe vs Burgess Hill Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Whyteleafe win (39%). Probabilities: AFC Whyteleafe 39%, draw 25%, Burgess Hill Town 36%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Whyteleafe vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model expects 3.26 goals (AFC Whyteleafe 1.66 · Burgess Hill Town 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Whyteleafe vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.