Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Chatham Town vs Lewes

Team pages: Chatham Town · Lewes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Chatham Town1.89

Lewes1.1

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Chatham Town Draw Lewes

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chatham Town 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWLL

Lewes 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Chatham Town 4–1–1 Lewes (6 last)

Chatham Town2-1Lewes
Lewes0-2Chatham Town
Chatham Town1-1Lewes
Lewes2-0Chatham Town
Lewes0-3Chatham Town
Chatham Town3-0Lewes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chatham Town 1533 · Lewes 1507

	Chatham Town	Draw	Lewes
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chatham Town: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chatham Town	Lewes
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	0.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +14’	1.61	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chatham Town 4–1–1 Lewes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Chatham Town	2-1 HT 1-0	Lewes
22/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	0-2 HT 0-0	Chatham Town
02/11/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Chatham Town	1-1	Lewes
10/08/24 England Ryman Premier Division	Lewes	2-0 HT 1-0	Chatham Town
17/02/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	0-3	Chatham Town
23/09/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Chatham Town	3-0	Lewes

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	6	5	0	1	20	7	15
2	Carshalton Ath	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
3	Lewes	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
4	Welling	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
5	Dartford	6	4	0	2	8	8	12
6	Dulwich	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
7	Aveley	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
8	Leatherhead	6	3	1	2	12	11	10
9	St Albans	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
10	Ramsgate	6	3	0	3	15	8	9
11	Chatham Town	6	3	0	3	12	9	9
12	Burgess Hill Town	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
13	Cray Wanderers	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
14	Wingate & Finchley	6	2	2	2	8	11	8
15	Eastbourne Borough	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	4	2	0	2	6	9	6
17	Cheshunt	6	0	5	1	4	6	5
18	Three Bridges	6	1	1	4	11	18	4
19	Brentwood Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
20	Whitehawk	6	0	2	4	4	14	2
21	AFC Whyteleafe	6	0	2	4	6	17	2
22	Stanway Rovers	6	0	1	5	3	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chatham Town	Lewes
Wingate & Finchley	2-3 L	1-1 D
Whitehawk	3-0 W	0-0 D
St Albans	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lewes (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chatham Town

WWWLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
29/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
08/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/04	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-3	2-3	6	7	L
25/04	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/04	Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-0	–	–	W
11/04	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W

Lewes

WLDLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
08/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
06/04	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	3-0	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chatham Town vs Lewes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chatham Town win (55%). Probabilities: Chatham Town 55%, draw 24%, Lewes 21%.

How many goals are expected in Chatham Town vs Lewes?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Chatham Town 1.89 · Lewes 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chatham Town vs Lewes?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.