Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 14/09, 20:45

Prediction: Aveley vs Wingate & Finchley

Team pages: Aveley · Wingate & Finchley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Aveley1.96

Wingate & Finchley1.1

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Aveley Draw Wingate & Finchley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Aveley 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWWLWL

Wingate & Finchley 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Aveley 4–0 Wingate & Finchley (4 last)

Wingate & Finchley0-2Aveley
Aveley2-0Wingate & Finchley
Aveley1-0Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley1-2Aveley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aveley 1520 · Wingate & Finchley 1460

	Aveley	Draw	Wingate & Finchley
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aveley (rating 1520 vs 1460).
H2H favours Aveley: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aveley	Wingate & Finchley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:33 +14’	1.60	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 4–0–0 Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	0-2 HT 0-0	Aveley
22/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	2-0	Wingate & Finchley
14/01/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	1-0	Wingate & Finchley
27/08/22 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-2	Aveley

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	7	6	0	1	23	9	18
2	Welling	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
3	Carshalton Ath	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	Dartford	7	5	0	2	11	8	15
5	Dulwich	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
6	St Albans	7	4	1	2	14	10	13
7	Leatherhead	7	4	1	2	14	12	13
8	Lewes	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
9	Chatham Town	7	4	0	3	15	11	12
10	Ramsgate	7	3	1	3	17	10	10
11	Aveley	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
12	Eastbourne Borough	7	3	1	3	12	10	10
13	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
14	Maldon Tiptree FC	5	3	0	2	9	11	9
15	Cray Wanderers	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
16	Wingate & Finchley	7	2	2	3	9	15	8
17	Cheshunt	7	0	5	2	4	9	5
18	AFC Whyteleafe	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
19	Three Bridges	7	1	1	5	11	22	4
20	Brentwood Town	6	1	0	5	6	11	3
21	Whitehawk	7	0	2	5	6	17	2
22	Stanway Rovers	7	0	1	6	3	19	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aveley	Wingate & Finchley
Lewes	0-2 L	1-1 D
Carshalton Ath	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aveley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/04	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-4	2	4	L
25/04	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
18/04	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D

Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
18/04	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aveley vs Wingate & Finchley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aveley win (57%). Probabilities: Aveley 57%, draw 23%, Wingate & Finchley 20%.

How many goals are expected in Aveley vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Aveley 1.96 · Wingate & Finchley 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aveley vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.