Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Welling vs Cheshunt

Team pages: Welling · Cheshunt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Welling1.92

Cheshunt1.13

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Welling Draw Cheshunt

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWWLW

Cheshunt 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLDDDL

Head-to-head

Welling 2–1–1 Cheshunt (4 last)

Welling3-1Cheshunt
Cheshunt4-2Welling
Cheshunt1-1Welling
Welling2-1Cheshunt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1567 · Cheshunt 1448

	Welling	Draw	Cheshunt
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1567 vs 1448).
H2H favours Welling: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Cheshunt
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.5	1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +3’	1.65	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Welling 2–1–1 Cheshunt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	3-1 HT 1-0	Cheshunt
09/08/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Cheshunt	4-2	Welling
07/02/23 England National League South	Cheshunt	1-1 HT 0-0	Welling
16/08/22 England National League South	Welling	2-1 HT 2-1	Cheshunt

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	7	6	0	1	23	9	18
2	Welling	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
3	Carshalton Ath	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	Dartford	7	5	0	2	11	8	15
5	Dulwich	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
6	St Albans	7	4	1	2	14	10	13
7	Leatherhead	7	4	1	2	14	12	13
8	Lewes	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
9	Chatham Town	7	4	0	3	15	11	12
10	Ramsgate	7	3	1	3	17	10	10
11	Aveley	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
12	Eastbourne Borough	7	3	1	3	12	10	10
13	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
14	Maldon Tiptree FC	5	3	0	2	9	11	9
15	Cray Wanderers	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
16	Wingate & Finchley	7	2	2	3	9	15	8
17	Cheshunt	7	0	5	2	4	9	5
18	AFC Whyteleafe	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
19	Three Bridges	7	1	1	5	11	22	4
20	Brentwood Town	6	1	0	5	6	11	3
21	Whitehawk	7	0	2	5	6	17	2
22	Stanway Rovers	7	0	1	6	3	19	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Cheshunt
Cray Wanderers	1-4 L	0-0 D
Stanway Rovers	4-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

WWDWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-0	9	7	W
11/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	0-4	1-4	7	3	L
08/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
14/04	Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Cheshunt

WLLDDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
31/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
29/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
08/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Folkestone Invicta England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-5	–	–	L
18/04	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/04	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Cheshunt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (55%). Probabilities: Welling 55%, draw 24%, Cheshunt 21%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Cheshunt?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Welling 1.92 · Cheshunt 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Cheshunt?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.