Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Lewes vs Carshalton Ath

Team pages: Lewes · Carshalton Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Lewes1.3

Carshalton Ath1.47

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Lewes Draw Carshalton Ath

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lewes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWWWWL

Carshalton Ath 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Lewes 1–2–3 Carshalton Ath (6 last)

Lewes2-3Carshalton Ath
Carshalton Ath1-2Lewes
Lewes1-3Carshalton Ath
Carshalton Ath0-0Lewes
Lewes1-3Carshalton Ath
Carshalton Ath1-1Lewes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lewes 1482 · Carshalton Ath 1516

	Lewes	Draw	Carshalton Ath
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carshalton Ath: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lewes	Carshalton Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	3.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +3’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lewes 1–2–3 Carshalton Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	2-3	Carshalton Ath
11/08/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	1-2 HT 1-1	Lewes
18/04/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	1-3 HT 1-0	Carshalton Ath
07/09/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	0-0	Lewes
30/01/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	1-3 HT 0-1	Carshalton Ath
23/10/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	1-1 HT 1-1	Lewes

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	7	6	0	1	23	9	18
2	Welling	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
3	Carshalton Ath	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	Dartford	7	5	0	2	11	8	15
5	Dulwich	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
6	St Albans	7	4	1	2	14	10	13
7	Leatherhead	7	4	1	2	14	12	13
8	Lewes	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
9	Chatham Town	7	4	0	3	15	11	12
10	Ramsgate	7	3	1	3	17	10	10
11	Aveley	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
12	Eastbourne Borough	7	3	1	3	12	10	10
13	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
14	Maldon Tiptree FC	5	3	0	2	9	11	9
15	Cray Wanderers	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
16	Wingate & Finchley	7	2	2	3	9	15	8
17	Cheshunt	7	0	5	2	4	9	5
18	AFC Whyteleafe	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
19	Three Bridges	7	1	1	5	11	22	4
20	Brentwood Town	6	1	0	5	6	11	3
21	Whitehawk	7	0	2	5	6	17	2
22	Stanway Rovers	7	0	1	6	3	19	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lewes	Carshalton Ath
Aveley	2-0 W	0-0 D
AFC Whyteleafe	3-1 W	2-0 W
St Albans	2-0 W	1-0 W
Wingate & Finchley	1-1 D	2-0 W
Cray Wanderers	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lewes

LDLLDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
08/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-3	7	0	L

Carshalton Ath

LDWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
31/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
22/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
08/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/04	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lewes vs Carshalton Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carshalton Ath win (40%). Probabilities: Lewes 33%, draw 27%, Carshalton Ath 40%.

How many goals are expected in Lewes vs Carshalton Ath?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Lewes 1.3 · Carshalton Ath 1.47), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lewes vs Carshalton Ath?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.