Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Welling vs Wingate & Finchley

Team pages: Welling · Wingate & Finchley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Welling1.61

Wingate & Finchley1

1X2

51% 25% 23%

Welling Draw Wingate & Finchley

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWWWL

Wingate & Finchley 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLDWWL

Head-to-head

Welling 1–1–0 Wingate & Finchley (2 last)

Wingate & Finchley1-1Welling
Welling1-0Wingate & Finchley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1560 · Wingate & Finchley 1476

	Welling	Draw	Wingate & Finchley
Our model	50%	27%	22%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1560 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Wingate & Finchley
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +2’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Welling 1–1–0 Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-1 HT 1-0	Welling
10/01/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	1-0	Wingate & Finchley

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	6	5	0	1	20	7	15
2	Carshalton Ath	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
3	Lewes	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
4	Welling	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
5	Dartford	6	4	0	2	8	8	12
6	Dulwich	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
7	Aveley	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
8	Leatherhead	6	3	1	2	12	11	10
9	St Albans	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
10	Ramsgate	6	3	0	3	15	8	9
11	Chatham Town	6	3	0	3	12	9	9
12	Burgess Hill Town	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
13	Cray Wanderers	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
14	Wingate & Finchley	6	2	2	2	8	11	8
15	Eastbourne Borough	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	4	2	0	2	6	9	6
17	Cheshunt	6	0	5	1	4	6	5
18	Three Bridges	6	1	1	4	11	18	4
19	Brentwood Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
20	Whitehawk	6	0	2	4	4	14	2
21	AFC Whyteleafe	6	0	2	4	6	17	2
22	Stanway Rovers	6	0	1	5	3	15	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Wingate & Finchley
Cray Wanderers	1-4 L	1-1 D
Dulwich	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

WWWDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-0	9	7	W
11/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	0-4	1-4	7	3	L
08/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
14/04	Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/04	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	1	W

Wingate & Finchley

WLDLDLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
18/04	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/04	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Wingate & Finchley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (51%). Probabilities: Welling 51%, draw 25%, Wingate & Finchley 23%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Welling 1.61 · Wingate & Finchley 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.