Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Welling vs Burgess Hill Town

Team pages: Welling · Burgess Hill Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Welling1.65

Burgess Hill Town1.31

1X2

45% 26% 30%

Welling Draw Burgess Hill Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWWL

Burgess Hill Town 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWWDW

Head-to-head

Welling 0–2 Burgess Hill Town (2 last)

Burgess Hill Town2-1Welling
Welling1-2Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1529 · Burgess Hill Town 1569

	Welling	Draw	Burgess Hill Town
Our model	44%	26%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgess Hill Town (rating 1529 vs 1569).
H2H favours Burgess Hill Town: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Burgess Hill Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 6.3	2.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +12’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Welling 0–0–2 Burgess Hill Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	2-1 HT 0-0	Welling
08/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	1-2 HT 0-1	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	11	9	0	2	30	13	27
2	Lewes	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
3	Welling	11	8	0	3	20	10	24
4	Dartford	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
5	Carshalton Ath	13	7	0	6	19	22	21
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	10	4	5	1	18	11	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
11	Chatham Town	9	5	0	4	19	13	15
12	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
13	Cheshunt	11	3	5	3	11	14	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	4	2	4	16	20	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
16	Aveley	11	3	2	6	18	19	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
18	AFC Whyteleafe	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
19	Maldon Tiptree FC	12	3	0	9	15	33	9
20	Three Bridges	11	2	2	7	20	31	8
21	Whitehawk	11	1	2	8	11	26	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	1	1	8	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Burgess Hill Town
Maldon Tiptree FC	1-0 W	4-1 W
AFC Whyteleafe	1-0 W	3-0 W
Cheshunt	2-0 W	1-1 D
Ramsgate	1-0 W	2-2 D
Dartford	3-0 W	2-1 W
Leatherhead	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

LWWWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
11/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L

Burgess Hill Town

WDDWDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Winslow Utd England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
22/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Burgess Hill Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (45%). Probabilities: Welling 45%, draw 26%, Burgess Hill Town 30%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Welling 1.65 · Burgess Hill Town 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.