Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Maldon Tiptree FC vs Three Bridges

Team pages: Maldon Tiptree FC · Three Bridges

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Maldon Tiptree FC1.88

Three Bridges1.86

1X2

39% 24% 38%

Maldon Tiptree FC Draw Three Bridges

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Maldon Tiptree FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Three Bridges 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maldon Tiptree FC 1423 · Three Bridges 1453

	Maldon Tiptree FC	Draw	Three Bridges
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	38%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maldon Tiptree FC	Three Bridges
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.8 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.5	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:28 +5’	2.35	3.70	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	13	10	1	2	37	16	31
2	Welling	14	10	0	4	27	15	30
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Eastbourne Borough	12	8	1	3	23	12	25
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	13	7	0	6	26	20	21
9	Dulwich	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
10	St Albans	10	6	2	2	21	14	20
11	Burgess Hill Town	13	5	5	3	24	20	20
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
13	Brentwood Town	12	5	0	7	22	21	15
14	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
15	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
16	Cheshunt	14	3	6	5	14	22	15
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	16	4	2	10	20	38	14
19	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	14	1	3	10	13	34	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maldon Tiptree FC	Three Bridges
Eastbourne Borough	1-2 L	0-2 L
Dulwich	1-1 D	2-2 D
Aveley	2-1 W	1-5 L
Lewes	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Maldon Tiptree FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maldon Tiptree FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
17/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
10/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
26/09	Egham England FA Trophy	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-5	5	2	L

Three Bridges

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
13/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Three Bridges?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maldon Tiptree FC win (39%). Probabilities: Maldon Tiptree FC 39%, draw 24%, Three Bridges 38%.

How many goals are expected in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Three Bridges?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Maldon Tiptree FC 1.88 · Three Bridges 1.86), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Three Bridges?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.