Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Wingate & Finchley vs Maldon Tiptree FC

Team pages: Wingate & Finchley · Maldon Tiptree FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Wingate & Finchley2.33

Maldon Tiptree FC1.55

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Wingate & Finchley Draw Maldon Tiptree FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Wingate & Finchley 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWDD

Maldon Tiptree FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Wingate & Finchley 0–1 Maldon Tiptree FC (1 last)

Maldon Tiptree FC4-2Wingate & Finchley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wingate & Finchley 1544 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1426

	Wingate & Finchley	Draw	Maldon Tiptree FC
Our model	54%	21%	25%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wingate & Finchley (rating 1544 vs 1426).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wingate & Finchley	Maldon Tiptree FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.1	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +30’	1.67	3.90	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wingate & Finchley 0–0–1 Maldon Tiptree FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/19 England FA Cup Qualification	Maldon Tiptree FC	4-2	Wingate & Finchley

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	14	11	1	2	43	16	34
2	Welling	15	11	0	4	31	15	33
3	Eastbourne Borough	14	10	1	3	26	12	31
4	Lewes	15	8	3	4	23	18	27
5	Dartford	15	9	0	6	24	22	27
6	St Albans	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
7	Ramsgate	14	7	1	6	29	19	22
8	Wingate & Finchley	14	6	4	4	27	26	22
9	Carshalton Ath	16	7	1	8	23	32	22
10	Leatherhead	13	6	3	4	27	21	21
11	Chatham Town	14	7	0	7	27	23	21
12	Dulwich	15	6	3	6	25	26	21
13	Burgess Hill Town	15	5	6	4	25	27	21
14	Aveley	15	6	2	7	25	24	20
15	AFC Whyteleafe	15	5	3	7	26	27	18
16	Cheshunt	15	4	6	5	17	23	18
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	17	5	2	10	23	39	17
18	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
19	Brentwood Town	14	5	0	9	24	27	15
20	Three Bridges	14	2	3	9	24	39	9
21	Stanway Rovers	15	2	1	12	14	40	7
22	Whitehawk	15	1	3	11	14	37	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wingate & Finchley	Maldon Tiptree FC
Burgess Hill Town	1-1 D	1-4 L
Lewes	2-2 D	1-1 D
Aveley	4-3 W	2-1 W
Welling	1-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wingate & Finchley

WLLWLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-2	7	2	W
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W

Maldon Tiptree FC

LLLLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
17/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
10/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
22/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-5	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wingate & Finchley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wingate & Finchley win (54%). Probabilities: Wingate & Finchley 54%, draw 22%, Maldon Tiptree FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Wingate & Finchley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Wingate & Finchley 2.33 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1.55), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wingate & Finchley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.