Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Chatham Town vs Burgess Hill Town

Team pages: Chatham Town · Burgess Hill Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Chatham Town2.21

Burgess Hill Town1.48

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Chatham Town Draw Burgess Hill Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Chatham Town 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWWLL

Burgess Hill Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Chatham Town 3–0 Burgess Hill Town (3 last)

Burgess Hill Town0-3Chatham Town
Chatham Town4-0Burgess Hill Town
Chatham Town2-0Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chatham Town 1503 · Burgess Hill Town 1480

	Chatham Town	Draw	Burgess Hill Town
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chatham Town: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chatham Town	Burgess Hill Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +3’	1.70	3.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chatham Town 3–0–0 Burgess Hill Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	0-3	Chatham Town
06/12/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Chatham Town	4-0	Burgess Hill Town
17/12/24 England Isthmian Cup	Chatham Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	14	11	1	2	43	16	34
2	Welling	15	11	0	4	31	15	33
3	Eastbourne Borough	14	10	1	3	26	12	31
4	Lewes	15	8	3	4	23	18	27
5	Dartford	15	9	0	6	24	22	27
6	St Albans	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
7	Ramsgate	14	7	1	6	29	19	22
8	Wingate & Finchley	14	6	4	4	27	26	22
9	Carshalton Ath	16	7	1	8	23	32	22
10	Leatherhead	13	6	3	4	27	21	21
11	Chatham Town	14	7	0	7	27	23	21
12	Dulwich	15	6	3	6	25	26	21
13	Burgess Hill Town	15	5	6	4	25	27	21
14	Aveley	15	6	2	7	25	24	20
15	AFC Whyteleafe	15	5	3	7	26	27	18
16	Cheshunt	15	4	6	5	17	23	18
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	17	5	2	10	23	39	17
18	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
19	Brentwood Town	14	5	0	9	24	27	15
20	Three Bridges	14	2	3	9	24	39	9
21	Stanway Rovers	15	2	1	12	14	40	7
22	Whitehawk	15	1	3	11	14	37	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chatham Town	Burgess Hill Town
Enfield Town	0-4 L	0-6 L
Welling	3-2 W	2-4 L
Dulwich	4-0 W	2-0 W
Aveley	0-1 L	1-1 D
Wingate & Finchley	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chatham Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chatham Town

LLWLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
24/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	4-0	6	0	W
17/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/09	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
29/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L

Burgess Hill Town

DDWDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
31/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-6	–	–	L
27/10	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
21/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
17/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
13/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chatham Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chatham Town win (53%). Probabilities: Chatham Town 53%, draw 23%, Burgess Hill Town 24%.

How many goals are expected in Chatham Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Chatham Town 2.21 · Burgess Hill Town 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chatham Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.