Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Welling vs Carshalton Ath

Team pages: Welling · Carshalton Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Welling2.06

Carshalton Ath1.26

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Welling Draw Carshalton Ath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Carshalton Ath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Welling 1–1 Carshalton Ath (2 last)

Welling2-1Carshalton Ath
Carshalton Ath2-1Welling

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1549 · Carshalton Ath 1442

	Welling	Draw	Carshalton Ath
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1549 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Carshalton Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.3 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.4	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +19’	1.65	3.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Welling 1–0–1 Carshalton Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	2-1 HT 2-1	Carshalton Ath
27/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	2-1	Welling

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	13	10	1	2	37	16	31
2	Welling	14	10	0	4	27	15	30
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Eastbourne Borough	12	8	1	3	23	12	25
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	13	7	0	6	26	20	21
9	Dulwich	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
10	St Albans	10	6	2	2	21	14	20
11	Burgess Hill Town	13	5	5	3	24	20	20
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
13	Brentwood Town	12	5	0	7	22	21	15
14	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
15	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
16	Cheshunt	14	3	6	5	14	22	15
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	16	4	2	10	20	38	14
19	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	14	1	3	10	13	34	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Carshalton Ath
Eastbourne Borough	0-1 L	0-4 L
Maldon Tiptree FC	1-0 W	3-2 W
Wingate & Finchley	4-1 W	2-4 L
Ramsgate	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-2	6	6	W
10/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Carshalton Ath

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
17/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/10	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-4	0	3	L
03/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/09	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/09	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
31/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Carshalton Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (55%). Probabilities: Welling 55%, draw 23%, Carshalton Ath 22%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Carshalton Ath?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Welling 2.06 · Carshalton Ath 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Carshalton Ath?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.