Football · England Southern Premier League South · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Chertsey Town vs Poole Town

Team pages: Chertsey Town · Poole Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Chertsey Town1.73

Poole Town1.32

1X2

46% 25% 28%

Chertsey Town Draw Poole Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chertsey Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLLWD

Poole Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Chertsey Town 1–3 Poole Town (4 last)

Chertsey Town0-1Poole Town
Poole Town1-0Chertsey Town
Poole Town3-1Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town2-1Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chertsey Town 1537 · Poole Town 1536

	Chertsey Town	Draw	Poole Town
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	47%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Poole Town: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chertsey Town	Poole Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	2.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.8	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +10’	1.91	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chertsey Town 1–0–3 Poole Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	0-1	Poole Town
06/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	1-0	Chertsey Town
26/04/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	3-1 HT 2-0	Chertsey Town
14/01/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	2-1 HT 1-1	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	22	7	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	15	7	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	19	12	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	12	8	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13	14	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	11	12	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	21	20	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	8	9	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11	9	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10	17	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	6	4	9
16	Basingstoke	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
20	Gloucester	8	1	3	4	11	16	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	12	23	5
22	Havant and W	8	1	1	6	8	15	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chertsey Town	Poole Town
Chichester City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Sholing	4-2 W	0-1 L
Yate Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Berkhamsted	4-1 W	3-2 W
Gloucester	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chertsey Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chertsey Town

LWWWDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	9	13	L
22/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	4-1	8	5	W
08/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Weymouth England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L

Poole Town

WDDWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
25/04	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
18/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chertsey Town vs Poole Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chertsey Town win (46%). Probabilities: Chertsey Town 46%, draw 25%, Poole Town 28%.

How many goals are expected in Chertsey Town vs Poole Town?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Chertsey Town 1.73 · Poole Town 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chertsey Town vs Poole Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.