Football · England Southern Premier League South · 03/10, 16:00
Prediction: Poole Town vs Evesham United
Team pages: Poole Town · Evesham United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Poole Town1.84
Evesham United1.12
1X2
Poole Town
Draw
Evesham United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Poole Town
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Evesham United
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Poole Town
0–2–0
Evesham United
(2 last)
- Evesham United1-1Poole Town
- Poole Town1-1Evesham United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Poole Town 1532 · Evesham United 1512
| Poole Town | Draw | Evesham United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Poole Town | Evesham United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 1 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 100/0/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.8 | 1 / 2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 0–2–0 Evesham United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England Southern Premier League South | Evesham United | 1-1 | Poole Town |
| 23/08/25 England Southern Premier League South | Poole Town | 1-1 | Evesham United |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Bath City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Poole Town | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Chertsey Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
| 7 | Frome Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 14 |
| 8 | Taunton Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 |
| 9 | Evesham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | Chichester City | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 11 | Berkhamsted | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| 12 | Wimborne Town | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Gosport Borough | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 14 | Yate Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Bracknell Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| 16 | Sholing | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 17 | Basingstoke | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 19 | Gloucester | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 7 |
| 21 | Havant and W | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Poole Town | Evesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Parkway | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Berkhamsted | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Basingstoke | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Chichester City | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Gloucester | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Evesham United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Poole Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | Yate Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Sholing England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Chichester City England Southern Premier League South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South |
2-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | D |
Evesham United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Chichester City England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Frome Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Evesham United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (53%). Probabilities: Poole Town 53%, draw 24%, Evesham United 22%.
How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Evesham United?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Poole Town 1.84 · Evesham United 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Evesham United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.