Football · England Southern Premier League South · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Gloucester vs Plymouth Parkway

Team pages: Gloucester · Plymouth Parkway

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Gloucester1.99

Plymouth Parkway1.64

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Gloucester Draw Plymouth Parkway

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWDLDL

Plymouth Parkway 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Gloucester 3–2 Plymouth Parkway (5 last)

Gloucester3-0Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway2-1Gloucester
Plymouth Parkway6-0Gloucester
Gloucester3-2Plymouth Parkway
Gloucester3-1Plymouth Parkway

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1499 · Plymouth Parkway 1589

	Gloucester	Draw	Plymouth Parkway
Our model	45%	23%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth Parkway (rating 1499 vs 1589).
H2H favours Gloucester: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Plymouth Parkway
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:50 +4’	2.00	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 3–0–2 Plymouth Parkway

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	3-0	Plymouth Parkway
16/08/25 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	2-1	Gloucester
21/12/24 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	6-0	Gloucester
13/08/24 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	3-2 HT 2-0	Plymouth Parkway
23/09/18 England FA Cup Qualification	Gloucester	3-1	Plymouth Parkway

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	22	7	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	15	7	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	19	12	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	12	8	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13	14	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	11	12	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	21	20	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	8	9	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11	9	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10	17	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	6	4	9
16	Basingstoke	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
20	Gloucester	8	1	3	4	11	16	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	12	23	5
22	Havant and W	8	1	1	6	8	15	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Plymouth Parkway
Evesham United	1-2 L	3-1 W
Havant and W	3-3 D	2-1 W
Hanwell Town	1-0 W	2-0 W
Bracknell Town	2-3 L	7-0 W
Poole Town	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

DLLLDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-5	5	3	L
12/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
08/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/05	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	3	7	D

Plymouth Parkway

WWWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
08/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	7-0	–	–	W
25/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	6-3	–	–	W
18/04	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Plymouth Parkway?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (45%). Probabilities: Gloucester 45%, draw 24%, Plymouth Parkway 31%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Gloucester 1.99 · Plymouth Parkway 1.64), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.