Football · England Southern Premier League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Uxbridge vs Evesham United

Team pages: Uxbridge · Evesham United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Uxbridge2.09

Evesham United1.11

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Uxbridge Draw Evesham United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Uxbridge 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDWLW

Evesham United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Uxbridge 1–1–0 Evesham United (2 last)

Uxbridge2-2Evesham United
Evesham United1-2Uxbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uxbridge 1605 · Evesham United 1512

	Uxbridge	Draw	Evesham United
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uxbridge (rating 1605 vs 1512).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uxbridge	Evesham United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +4’	1.50	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Uxbridge 1–1–0 Evesham United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Uxbridge	2-2	Evesham United
25/10/25 England Southern Premier League South	Evesham United	1-2	Uxbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plymouth Parkway	9	6	2	1	23	8	20
2	Uxbridge	9	6	2	1	19	8	20
3	Hanworth Villa	9	6	1	2	17	8	19
4	Poole Town	9	6	0	3	14	11	18
5	Bath City	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
6	Frome Town	10	4	3	3	17	13	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	4	2	3	20	15	14
8	Taunton Town	9	4	1	4	23	22	13
9	Chichester City	9	4	1	4	14	16	13
10	Evesham United	9	4	1	4	14	17	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	4	1	5	11	14	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	3	3	2	10	4	12
13	Gosport Borough	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
14	Yate Town	9	3	3	3	13	18	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	3	2	4	11	18	11
16	Sholing	8	3	1	4	9	12	10
17	Basingstoke	9	2	3	4	14	16	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	1	4	3	7	10	7
19	Gloucester	9	1	4	4	12	17	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	2	1	5	7	16	7
21	Havant and W	9	1	2	6	9	16	5
22	Malvern Town	9	1	2	6	13	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uxbridge	Evesham United
Basingstoke	2-1 W	4-2 W
Berkhamsted	0-1 L	0-0 D
Chichester City	5-0 W	3-0 W
Taunton Town	5-4 W	0-0 D
Chippenham Town	2-0 W	2-0 W
Poole Town	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Uxbridge (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uxbridge

DWWDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
15/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
12/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
31/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-4	–	–	W
15/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-2	3-3	2	0	D

Evesham United

DWLWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
08/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/04	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uxbridge vs Evesham United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Uxbridge win (59%). Probabilities: Uxbridge 59%, draw 22%, Evesham United 19%.

How many goals are expected in Uxbridge vs Evesham United?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Uxbridge 2.09 · Evesham United 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Uxbridge vs Evesham United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.