Football · England Southern Premier League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Poole Town vs Chertsey Town

Team pages: Poole Town · Chertsey Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Poole Town1.61

Chertsey Town1.34

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Poole Town Draw Chertsey Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Poole Town 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWWW

Chertsey Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Poole Town 4–1 Chertsey Town (5 last)

Chertsey Town1-3Poole Town
Chertsey Town0-1Poole Town
Poole Town1-0Chertsey Town
Poole Town3-1Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town2-1Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poole Town 1565 · Chertsey Town 1534

	Poole Town	Draw	Chertsey Town
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Poole Town: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poole Town	Chertsey Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 4.5	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:07 +4’	2.05	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 4–0–1 Chertsey Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	1-3	Poole Town
11/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	0-1	Poole Town
06/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	1-0	Chertsey Town
26/04/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	3-1 HT 2-0	Chertsey Town
14/01/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	2-1 HT 1-1	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	23	8	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	25	15	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	26	14	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	23	21	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	25	18	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	20	9	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	19	17	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
13	Basingstoke	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	13	27	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	16	25	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	13	17	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	13	2	3	8	18	26	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poole Town	Chertsey Town
Chippenham Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Evesham United	3-1 W	2-0 W
Yate Town	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Poole Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poole Town

LWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L

Chertsey Town

DWLLWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	9	13	L
22/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Chertsey Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (43%). Probabilities: Poole Town 43%, draw 25%, Chertsey Town 32%.

How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Chertsey Town?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Poole Town 1.61 · Chertsey Town 1.34), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Chertsey Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.