Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Sholing vs Malvern Town

Team pages: Sholing · Malvern Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Sholing2.01

Malvern Town1.3

1X2

53% 24% 24%

Sholing Draw Malvern Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sholing 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Malvern Town 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sholing 1511 · Malvern Town 1447

	Sholing	Draw	Malvern Town
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sholing (rating 1511 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sholing	Malvern Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +43’	1.70	3.80	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	12	9	2	1	25	8	29
2	Poole Town	13	9	1	3	24	15	28
3	Hanworth Villa	14	8	3	3	27	16	27
4	Plymouth Parkway	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
5	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
6	Chichester City	14	7	1	6	24	23	22
7	Gosport Borough	14	6	3	5	22	18	21
8	Chertsey Town	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
9	Wimborne Town	12	5	4	3	20	9	19
10	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
11	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
12	Berkhamsted	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
14	Hanwell Town	12	3	5	4	16	15	14
15	Yate Town	13	3	5	5	16	25	14
16	Bracknell Town	14	4	2	8	14	30	14
17	Sholing	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
18	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	11	2	4	5	15	19	10
21	Havant and W	14	2	3	9	19	32	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sholing	Malvern Town
Yate Town	1-1 D	3-2 W
Frome Town	1-1 D	2-0 W
Gosport Borough	1-0 W	2-4 L
Chertsey Town	2-4 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sholing

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
10/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
12/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-4	–	–	L
15/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-4	7	1	L
22/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sholing vs Malvern Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sholing win (53%). Probabilities: Sholing 53%, draw 24%, Malvern Town 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sholing vs Malvern Town?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Sholing 2.01 · Malvern Town 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sholing vs Malvern Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.