Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gloucester vs Berkhamsted

Team pages: Gloucester · Berkhamsted

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Gloucester1.68

Berkhamsted1.08

1X2

51% 26% 24%

Gloucester Draw Berkhamsted

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDLDWL

Berkhamsted 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLWLD

Head-to-head

Gloucester 0–1–1 Berkhamsted (2 last)

Berkhamsted1-0Gloucester
Gloucester3-3Berkhamsted

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1507 · Berkhamsted 1544

	Gloucester	Draw	Berkhamsted
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Berkhamsted
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:33 +4’	1.75	3.60	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 0–1–1 Berkhamsted

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Berkhamsted	1-0	Gloucester
21/10/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	3-3	Berkhamsted

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	12	9	2	1	25	8	29
2	Poole Town	13	9	1	3	24	15	28
3	Hanworth Villa	14	8	3	3	27	16	27
4	Plymouth Parkway	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
5	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
6	Chichester City	14	7	1	6	24	23	22
7	Gosport Borough	14	6	3	5	22	18	21
8	Chertsey Town	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
9	Wimborne Town	12	5	4	3	20	9	19
10	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
11	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
12	Berkhamsted	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
14	Hanwell Town	12	3	5	4	16	15	14
15	Yate Town	13	3	5	5	16	25	14
16	Bracknell Town	14	4	2	8	14	30	14
17	Sholing	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
18	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	11	2	4	5	15	19	10
21	Havant and W	14	2	3	9	19	32	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Berkhamsted
Hanworth Villa	3-1 W	1-2 L
Evesham United	1-2 L	0-0 D
Hanwell Town	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

LDWDLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-5	5	3	L
12/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L

Berkhamsted

LWWDWLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
20/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
10/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
22/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
15/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Berkhamsted?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (51%). Probabilities: Gloucester 51%, draw 26%, Berkhamsted 24%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Berkhamsted?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Gloucester 1.68 · Berkhamsted 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Berkhamsted?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.