Football · England Southern Premier League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Yate Town vs Gloucester

Team pages: Yate Town · Gloucester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Yate Town1.12

Gloucester1.64

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Yate Town Draw Gloucester

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Yate Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLDDL

Gloucester 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLDWLD

Head-to-head

Yate Town 1–2 Gloucester (3 last)

Yate Town2-1Gloucester
Gloucester1-0Yate Town
Gloucester1-0Yate Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yate Town 1439 · Gloucester 1500

	Yate Town	Draw	Gloucester
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gloucester (rating 1439 vs 1500).
H2H favours Gloucester: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yate Town	Gloucester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 7.5	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.75

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +22’	3.40	3.75	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yate Town 1–0–2 Gloucester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	2-1	Gloucester
05/12/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	1-0 HT 1-0	Yate Town
19/07/24 Club Friendly List	Gloucester	1-0 HT 0-0	Yate Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	14	10	2	2	28	11	32
2	Poole Town	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
3	Hanworth Villa	15	9	3	3	31	18	30
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	14	9	2	3	20	10	29
6	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
7	Chichester City	15	8	1	6	27	25	25
8	Gosport Borough	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
11	Frome Town	14	5	4	5	22	19	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
14	Evesham United	15	5	1	9	20	32	16
15	Basingstoke	15	4	3	8	24	31	15
16	Hanwell Town	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
17	Yate Town	14	3	5	6	16	27	14
18	Bracknell Town	16	4	2	10	17	35	14
19	Havant and W	15	3	3	9	20	32	12
20	Chippenham Town	14	3	3	8	15	29	12
21	Gloucester	12	2	5	5	17	21	11
22	Malvern Town	14	3	2	9	21	38	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yate Town	Gloucester
Wimborne Town	0-0 D	1-1 D
Malvern Town	2-3 L	2-5 L
Berkhamsted	0-3 L	2-2 D
Hanworth Villa	3-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gloucester (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yate Town

LLWLDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
27/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
20/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
13/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
10/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
29/09	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Gloucester

DWDLDLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
27/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-5	5	3	L
12/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yate Town vs Gloucester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gloucester win (49%). Probabilities: Yate Town 26%, draw 25%, Gloucester 49%.

How many goals are expected in Yate Town vs Gloucester?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Yate Town 1.12 · Gloucester 1.64), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Yate Town vs Gloucester?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.