Football · England Southern Premier League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Chippenham Town vs Gosport Borough

Team pages: Chippenham Town · Gosport Borough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Chippenham Town1.54

Gosport Borough1.5

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Chippenham Town Draw Gosport Borough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chippenham Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Gosport Borough 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chippenham Town 1445 · Gosport Borough 1537

	Chippenham Town	Draw	Gosport Borough
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gosport Borough (rating 1445 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chippenham Town	Gosport Borough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +13’	2.35	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	14	10	2	2	28	11	32
2	Poole Town	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
3	Hanworth Villa	15	9	3	3	31	18	30
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	14	9	2	3	20	10	29
6	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
7	Chichester City	15	8	1	6	27	25	25
8	Gosport Borough	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
11	Frome Town	14	5	4	5	22	19	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
14	Evesham United	15	5	1	9	20	32	16
15	Basingstoke	15	4	3	8	24	31	15
16	Hanwell Town	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
17	Yate Town	14	3	5	6	16	27	14
18	Bracknell Town	16	4	2	10	17	35	14
19	Havant and W	15	3	3	9	20	32	12
20	Chippenham Town	14	3	3	8	15	29	12
21	Gloucester	12	2	5	5	17	21	11
22	Malvern Town	14	3	2	9	21	38	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chippenham Town	Gosport Borough
Wimborne Town	0-2 L	0-3 L
Poole Town	1-4 L	1-3 L
Bath City	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gosport Borough (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chippenham Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	4-1	4-2	5	3	W
31/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
17/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
13/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Gosport Borough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
27/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
30/09	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chippenham Town vs Gosport Borough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chippenham Town win (38%). Probabilities: Chippenham Town 38%, draw 26%, Gosport Borough 36%.

How many goals are expected in Chippenham Town vs Gosport Borough?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Chippenham Town 1.54 · Gosport Borough 1.5), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chippenham Town vs Gosport Borough?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.