Football · England Southern Premier League South · 07/11, 16:00
Prediction: Basingstoke vs Hanworth Villa
Team pages: Basingstoke · Hanworth Villa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Basingstoke1.47
Hanworth Villa1.91
1X2
Basingstoke
Draw
Hanworth Villa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Basingstoke
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Hanworth Villa
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Basingstoke 1462 · Hanworth Villa 1548
| Basingstoke | Draw | Hanworth Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanworth Villa (rating 1462 vs 1548).
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Basingstoke | Hanworth Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 2 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/0/100% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.7 | 2.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uxbridge | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Poole Town | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 31 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Plymouth Parkway | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | Bath City | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 29 |
| 6 | Chertsey Town | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 26 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | Gosport Borough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 24 |
| 9 | Wimborne Town | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 22 |
| 10 | Taunton Town | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 19 |
| 11 | Frome Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | Sholing | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 16 |
| 14 | Evesham United | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 16 |
| 15 | Basingstoke | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 31 | 15 |
| 16 | Hanwell Town | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 14 |
| 17 | Yate Town | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
| 18 | Bracknell Town | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 14 |
| 19 | Havant and W | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 12 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 12 |
| 21 | Gloucester | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 38 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Basingstoke | Hanworth Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Chertsey Town | 3-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Plymouth Parkway | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Havant and W | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Gloucester | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Bracknell Town | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hanworth Villa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Basingstoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/10 | Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/10 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/10 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/10 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/09 | Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/09 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Hanworth Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/10 | Chichester City England Southern Premier League South |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 20/10 | Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 13/10 | Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/09 | Chichester City England Southern Premier League South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/09 | Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Yate Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Basingstoke vs Hanworth Villa?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hanworth Villa win (47%). Probabilities: Basingstoke 29%, draw 24%, Hanworth Villa 47%.
How many goals are expected in Basingstoke vs Hanworth Villa?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Basingstoke 1.47 · Hanworth Villa 1.91), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Basingstoke vs Hanworth Villa?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.