Football · England Southern Premier League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Malvern Town vs Havant and W

Team pages: Malvern Town · Havant and W

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Malvern Town1.95

Havant and W2.06

1X2

36% 23% 40%

Malvern Town Draw Havant and W

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Malvern Town 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Havant and W 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malvern Town 1448 · Havant and W 1448

	Malvern Town	Draw	Havant and W
Our model	37%	22%	41%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malvern Town	Havant and W
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.8	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/25/75%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	1.8 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +15’	2.50	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	14	10	2	2	28	11	32
2	Poole Town	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
3	Hanworth Villa	15	9	3	3	31	18	30
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	14	9	2	3	20	10	29
6	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
7	Chichester City	15	8	1	6	27	25	25
8	Gosport Borough	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
11	Frome Town	14	5	4	5	22	19	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
14	Evesham United	15	5	1	9	20	32	16
15	Basingstoke	15	4	3	8	24	31	15
16	Hanwell Town	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
17	Yate Town	14	3	5	6	16	27	14
18	Bracknell Town	16	4	2	10	17	35	14
19	Havant and W	15	3	3	9	20	32	12
20	Chippenham Town	14	3	3	8	15	29	12
21	Gloucester	12	2	5	5	17	21	11
22	Malvern Town	14	3	2	9	21	38	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malvern Town	Havant and W
Basingstoke	1-4 L	4-1 W
Bath City	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Havant and W (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	1-3	2-4	9	4	L
20/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-4	7	1	L

Havant and W

LLLDLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-3	1-6	2	5	L
20/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	0	0	L
17/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
10/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-6	–	–	L
29/09	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
19/09	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malvern Town vs Havant and W?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Havant and W win (40%). Probabilities: Malvern Town 36%, draw 23%, Havant and W 40%.

How many goals are expected in Malvern Town vs Havant and W?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Malvern Town 1.95 · Havant and W 2.06), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Malvern Town vs Havant and W?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.