Football · England Southern Premier League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Poole Town vs Uxbridge

Team pages: Poole Town · Uxbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Poole Town1.59

Uxbridge1.35

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Poole Town Draw Uxbridge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Poole Town 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDLW

Uxbridge 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Poole Town 1–1–0 Uxbridge (2 last)

Uxbridge3-3Poole Town
Poole Town3-1Uxbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poole Town 1578 · Uxbridge 1563

	Poole Town	Draw	Uxbridge
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poole Town	Uxbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 4.5	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +5’	2.10	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 1–1–0 Uxbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Uxbridge	3-3 HT 1-2	Poole Town
13/12/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	3-1	Uxbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	14	10	2	2	28	11	32
2	Poole Town	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
3	Hanworth Villa	15	9	3	3	31	18	30
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	14	9	2	3	20	10	29
6	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
7	Chichester City	15	8	1	6	27	25	25
8	Gosport Borough	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
11	Frome Town	14	5	4	5	22	19	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
14	Evesham United	15	5	1	9	20	32	16
15	Basingstoke	15	4	3	8	24	31	15
16	Hanwell Town	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
17	Yate Town	14	3	5	6	16	27	14
18	Bracknell Town	16	4	2	10	17	35	14
19	Havant and W	15	3	3	9	20	32	12
20	Chippenham Town	14	3	3	8	15	29	12
21	Gloucester	12	2	5	5	17	21	11
22	Malvern Town	14	3	2	9	21	38	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poole Town	Uxbridge
Bath City	0-1 L	2-1 W
Evesham United	3-1 W	1-0 W
Plymouth Parkway	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poole Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
31/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L

Uxbridge

WDWLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-3	6	1	L
31/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
15/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
12/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
31/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Uxbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (42%). Probabilities: Poole Town 42%, draw 26%, Uxbridge 32%.

How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Uxbridge?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Poole Town 1.59 · Uxbridge 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Uxbridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.