Football · England Southern Premier League South · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Frome Town vs Hanworth Villa

Team pages: Frome Town · Hanworth Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Frome Town1.56

Hanworth Villa1.61

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Frome Town Draw Hanworth Villa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Frome Town 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDWLLD

Hanworth Villa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frome Town 1489 · Hanworth Villa 1537

	Frome Town	Draw	Hanworth Villa
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanworth Villa (rating 1489 vs 1537).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Frome Town	Hanworth Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:20 +48’	2.45	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	16	11	3	2	33	14	36
2	Poole Town	16	10	2	4	28	17	32
3	Hanworth Villa	16	9	4	3	32	19	31
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Chertsey Town	16	8	5	3	35	25	29
6	Bath City	16	9	2	5	21	15	29
7	Chichester City	17	9	1	7	30	28	28
8	Gosport Borough	16	7	3	6	25	22	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	14	7	1	6	35	26	22
11	Frome Town	15	5	5	5	24	21	20
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Yate Town	16	4	6	6	20	28	18
14	Sholing	14	4	5	5	19	21	17
15	Hanwell Town	16	4	5	7	22	26	17
16	Basingstoke	16	4	4	8	25	32	16
17	Chippenham Town	16	4	4	8	18	30	16
18	Evesham United	17	5	1	11	21	37	16
19	Gloucester	14	3	6	5	21	24	15
20	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
21	Malvern Town	16	4	2	10	24	41	14
22	Havant and W	16	3	3	10	20	33	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frome Town	Hanworth Villa
Bracknell Town	2-2 D	4-1 W
Chichester City	2-3 L	2-1 W
Chippenham Town	2-0 W	1-1 D
Yate Town	3-3 D	2-3 L
Plymouth Parkway	0-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hanworth Villa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frome Town

WDLDDDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
30/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Hanworth Villa

LWWLWDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
27/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
20/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
17/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	4-1	2	8	W
10/10	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
12/09	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frome Town vs Hanworth Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hanworth Villa win (39%). Probabilities: Frome Town 36%, draw 25%, Hanworth Villa 39%.

How many goals are expected in Frome Town vs Hanworth Villa?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Frome Town 1.56 · Hanworth Villa 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Frome Town vs Hanworth Villa?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.