Football · England Southern Premier League South · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Basingstoke vs Chippenham Town

Team pages: Basingstoke · Chippenham Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Basingstoke1.57

Chippenham Town1.48

1X2

39% 25% 35%

Basingstoke Draw Chippenham Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Basingstoke 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWLLD

Chippenham Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLWWD

Head-to-head

Basingstoke 0–1–2 Chippenham Town (3 last)

Chippenham Town1-1Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-2Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town2-0Basingstoke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basingstoke 1458 · Chippenham Town 1462

	Basingstoke	Draw	Chippenham Town
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	40%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chippenham Town: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basingstoke	Chippenham Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 2	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:34 +35’	2.25	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Basingstoke 0–1–2 Chippenham Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/11/23 England FA Trophy	Chippenham Town	1-1 HT 0-1	Basingstoke
25/02/17 England Southern League Premier	Basingstoke	1-2	Chippenham Town
25/10/16 England Southern League Premier	Chippenham Town	2-0	Basingstoke

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	16	11	3	2	33	14	36
2	Poole Town	16	10	2	4	28	17	32
3	Hanworth Villa	16	9	4	3	32	19	31
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Chertsey Town	16	8	5	3	35	25	29
6	Bath City	16	9	2	5	21	15	29
7	Chichester City	17	9	1	7	30	28	28
8	Gosport Borough	16	7	3	6	25	22	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	14	7	1	6	35	26	22
11	Frome Town	15	5	5	5	24	21	20
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Yate Town	16	4	6	6	20	28	18
14	Sholing	14	4	5	5	19	21	17
15	Hanwell Town	16	4	5	7	22	26	17
16	Basingstoke	16	4	4	8	25	32	16
17	Chippenham Town	16	4	4	8	18	30	16
18	Evesham United	17	5	1	11	21	37	16
19	Gloucester	14	3	6	5	21	24	15
20	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
21	Malvern Town	16	4	2	10	24	41	14
22	Havant and W	16	3	3	10	20	33	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basingstoke	Chippenham Town
Hanworth Villa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Chertsey Town	3-4 L	2-2 D
Gosport Borough	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chippenham Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basingstoke

DDLWLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-4	–	–	L
27/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
13/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-4	6	3	L
10/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
19/09	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Chippenham Town

LLDLLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
07/11	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/11	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	4-1	4-2	5	3	W
31/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
17/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
13/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basingstoke vs Chippenham Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Basingstoke win (39%). Probabilities: Basingstoke 39%, draw 25%, Chippenham Town 35%.

How many goals are expected in Basingstoke vs Chippenham Town?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Basingstoke 1.57 · Chippenham Town 1.48), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Basingstoke vs Chippenham Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.