Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Whyteleafe vs Dartford

Team pages: AFC Whyteleafe · Dartford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

AFC Whyteleafe1.13

Dartford1.8

1X2

23% 24% 53%

AFC Whyteleafe Draw Dartford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Whyteleafe 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Dartford 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Whyteleafe 1450 · Dartford 1568

	AFC Whyteleafe	Draw	Dartford
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	24%	23%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dartford (rating 1450 vs 1568).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Whyteleafe	Dartford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +5’	3.50	3.75	1.80
15:58 +21’	3.80▲	3.90▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	11	9	0	2	30	13	27
2	Lewes	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
3	Welling	11	8	0	3	20	10	24
4	Dartford	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
5	Carshalton Ath	13	7	0	6	19	22	21
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	10	4	5	1	18	11	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
11	Chatham Town	9	5	0	4	19	13	15
12	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
13	Cheshunt	11	3	5	3	11	14	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	4	2	4	16	20	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
16	AFC Whyteleafe	12	3	3	6	18	21	12
17	Aveley	11	3	2	6	18	19	11
18	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
19	Maldon Tiptree FC	12	3	0	9	15	33	9
20	Three Bridges	11	2	2	7	20	31	8
21	Whitehawk	12	1	2	9	11	31	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	1	1	8	8	26	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Whyteleafe	Dartford
Whitehawk	5-0 W	2-1 W
Maldon Tiptree FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Welling	0-1 L	0-3 L
Brentwood Town	1-2 L	1-0 W
Ramsgate	1-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AFC Whyteleafe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
10/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
30/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/09	Whitehawk England FA Trophy	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/09	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L

Dartford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
29/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/09	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
12/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
28/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
22/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Whyteleafe vs Dartford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dartford win (53%). Probabilities: AFC Whyteleafe 23%, draw 24%, Dartford 53%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Whyteleafe vs Dartford?

The model expects 2.94 goals (AFC Whyteleafe 1.13 · Dartford 1.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Whyteleafe vs Dartford?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.