Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aveley vs Dartford

Team pages: Aveley · Dartford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Aveley1.49

Dartford1.53

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Aveley Draw Dartford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Aveley 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLDWL

Dartford 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Aveley 1–1–2 Dartford (4 last)

Dartford2-0Aveley
Aveley1-1Dartford
Dartford1-2Aveley
Aveley0-1Dartford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aveley 1468 · Dartford 1529

	Aveley	Draw	Dartford
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dartford (rating 1468 vs 1529).
H2H favours Dartford: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aveley	Dartford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/0/75%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.8	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:23 +10’	2.45	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 1–1–2 Dartford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Dartford	2-0	Aveley
20/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	1-1 HT 0-0	Dartford
27/02/24 England National League South	Dartford	1-2 HT 0-0	Aveley
26/08/23 England National League South	Aveley	0-1 HT 0-0	Dartford

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	13	10	1	2	37	16	31
2	Welling	14	10	0	4	27	15	30
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Eastbourne Borough	12	8	1	3	23	12	25
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	13	7	0	6	26	20	21
9	Dulwich	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
10	St Albans	10	6	2	2	21	14	20
11	Burgess Hill Town	13	5	5	3	24	20	20
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
13	Brentwood Town	12	5	0	7	22	21	15
14	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
15	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
16	Cheshunt	14	3	6	5	14	22	15
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	16	4	2	10	20	38	14
19	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	14	1	3	10	13	34	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aveley	Dartford
Chatham Town	1-0 W	1-0 W
Burgess Hill Town	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wingate & Finchley	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aveley

WLWLLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
17/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/09	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
14/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	3-4	11	6	L
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	5-1	–	–	W

Dartford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
10/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
29/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/09	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
12/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
28/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
22/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aveley vs Dartford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dartford win (38%). Probabilities: Aveley 36%, draw 26%, Dartford 38%.

How many goals are expected in Aveley vs Dartford?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Aveley 1.49 · Dartford 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aveley vs Dartford?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.