Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lewes vs Wingate & Finchley

Team pages: Lewes · Wingate & Finchley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Lewes1.71

Wingate & Finchley1.36

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Lewes Draw Wingate & Finchley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lewes 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWWD

Wingate & Finchley 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Lewes 0–3–3 Wingate & Finchley (6 last)

Lewes1-1Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley3-0Lewes
Lewes0-0Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley2-2Lewes
Wingate & Finchley3-0Lewes
Lewes1-2Wingate & Finchley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lewes 1534 · Wingate & Finchley 1573

	Lewes	Draw	Wingate & Finchley
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	45%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wingate & Finchley: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lewes	Wingate & Finchley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 8	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:04 +29’	2.00	3.70	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lewes 0–3–3 Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	1-1	Wingate & Finchley
15/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	3-0 HT 0-0	Lewes
05/04/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	0-0	Wingate & Finchley
21/12/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	2-2 HT 1-0	Lewes
03/02/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	3-0 HT 2-0	Lewes
11/11/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	1-2	Wingate & Finchley

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	13	10	1	2	37	16	31
2	Welling	14	10	0	4	27	15	30
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Eastbourne Borough	12	8	1	3	23	12	25
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	13	7	0	6	26	20	21
9	Dulwich	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
10	St Albans	10	6	2	2	21	14	20
11	Burgess Hill Town	13	5	5	3	24	20	20
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
13	Brentwood Town	12	5	0	7	22	21	15
14	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
15	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
16	Cheshunt	14	3	6	5	14	22	15
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	16	4	2	10	20	38	14
19	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	14	1	3	10	13	34	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lewes	Wingate & Finchley
Carshalton Ath	3-0 W	4-2 W
Chatham Town	2-3 L	3-2 W
Aveley	2-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lewes (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lewes

WWLWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
13/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
26/09	Uxbridge England FA Trophy	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W

Wingate & Finchley

WWLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-2	7	2	W
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
26/09	Real Bedford England FA Trophy	–	3-0	–	–	W
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lewes vs Wingate & Finchley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lewes win (45%). Probabilities: Lewes 45%, draw 25%, Wingate & Finchley 30%.

How many goals are expected in Lewes vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Lewes 1.71 · Wingate & Finchley 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lewes vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.