Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chippenham Town vs Poole Town

Team pages: Chippenham Town · Poole Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Chippenham Town1.12

Poole Town1.51

1X2

28% 27% 46%

Chippenham Town Draw Poole Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chippenham Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWLLDL

Poole Town 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Chippenham Town 2–2–2 Poole Town (6 last)

Chippenham Town1-0Poole Town
Poole Town1-1Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town2-2Poole Town
Poole Town2-0Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town0-1Poole Town
Chippenham Town4-1Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chippenham Town 1451 · Poole Town 1559

	Chippenham Town	Draw	Poole Town
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poole Town (rating 1451 vs 1559).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chippenham Town	Poole Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3	4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +9’	3.20	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chippenham Town 2–2–2 Poole Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/21 England FA Cup Qualification	Chippenham Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Poole Town
18/09/21 England FA Cup Qualification	Poole Town	1-1	Chippenham Town
03/10/20 England FA Cup Qualification	Chippenham Town	2-2	Poole Town
30/01/18 England National League South	Poole Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Chippenham Town
15/08/17 England National League South	Chippenham Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Poole Town
17/09/16 England FA Cup Qualification	Chippenham Town	4-1	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chippenham Town	Poole Town
Chertsey Town	2-2 D	3-1 W
Evesham United	0-2 L	3-1 W
Berkhamsted	1-2 L	3-2 W
Plymouth Parkway	3-2 W	0-2 L
Yate Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Poole Town (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chippenham Town

LDWLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L

Poole Town

LLWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chippenham Town vs Poole Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Poole Town win (46%). Probabilities: Chippenham Town 28%, draw 27%, Poole Town 46%.

How many goals are expected in Chippenham Town vs Poole Town?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Chippenham Town 1.12 · Poole Town 1.51), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chippenham Town vs Poole Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.