Football · England Southern Premier League South · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Chichester City vs Berkhamsted

Team pages: Chichester City · Berkhamsted

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Chichester City1.65

Berkhamsted1.5

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Chichester City Draw Berkhamsted

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chichester City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Berkhamsted 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chichester City 1544 · Berkhamsted 1568

	Chichester City	Draw	Berkhamsted
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chichester City	Berkhamsted
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	0.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +11’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	7	2	3	24	14	23
5	Bath City	12	7	2	3	18	10	23
6	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
7	Chichester City	12	6	1	5	20	20	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	5	3	4	19	14	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
10	Taunton Town	11	5	1	5	28	25	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
14	Evesham United	12	4	1	7	15	24	13
15	Basingstoke	12	3	3	6	19	25	12
16	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	12	3	2	7	19	31	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	2	2	7	10	24	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chichester City	Berkhamsted
Sholing	3-2 W	0-2 L
Hanworth Villa	1-2 L	1-2 L
Chertsey Town	2-2 D	1-4 L
Uxbridge	0-5 L	1-0 W
Hanwell Town	2-0 W	1-0 W
Chippenham Town	4-0 W	2-1 W
Evesham United	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chichester City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chichester City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
10/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
22/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-2	0-5	4	1	L
31/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L

Berkhamsted

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
22/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
15/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chichester City vs Berkhamsted?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chichester City win (41%). Probabilities: Chichester City 41%, draw 25%, Berkhamsted 34%.

How many goals are expected in Chichester City vs Berkhamsted?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Chichester City 1.65 · Berkhamsted 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chichester City vs Berkhamsted?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.