Football · England Southern Premier League South · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Hanworth Villa vs Chippenham Town

Team pages: Hanworth Villa · Chippenham Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Hanworth Villa2.12

Chippenham Town1.3

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Hanworth Villa Draw Chippenham Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hanworth Villa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Chippenham Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hanworth Villa 1554 · Chippenham Town 1437

	Hanworth Villa	Draw	Chippenham Town
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanworth Villa (rating 1554 vs 1437).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hanworth Villa	Chippenham Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.3	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:23 +15’	1.65	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	7	2	3	24	14	23
5	Bath City	12	7	2	3	18	10	23
6	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
7	Chichester City	12	6	1	5	20	20	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	5	3	4	19	14	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
10	Taunton Town	11	5	1	5	28	25	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
14	Evesham United	12	4	1	7	15	24	13
15	Basingstoke	12	3	3	6	19	25	12
16	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	12	3	2	7	19	31	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	2	2	7	10	24	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hanworth Villa	Chippenham Town
Chichester City	2-1 W	0-4 L
Berkhamsted	2-1 W	1-2 L
Yate Town	2-3 L	1-1 D
Chertsey Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Evesham United	4-1 W	0-2 L
Bath City	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hanworth Villa (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hanworth Villa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	4-1	2	8	W
10/10	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
12/09	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Chippenham Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
13/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
10/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hanworth Villa vs Chippenham Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hanworth Villa win (55%). Probabilities: Hanworth Villa 55%, draw 23%, Chippenham Town 22%.

How many goals are expected in Hanworth Villa vs Chippenham Town?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Hanworth Villa 2.12 · Chippenham Town 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hanworth Villa vs Chippenham Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.