Football · England Southern Premier League South · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Uxbridge vs Malvern Town

Team pages: Uxbridge · Malvern Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Uxbridge2.49

Malvern Town1.2

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Uxbridge Draw Malvern Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Uxbridge 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Malvern Town 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uxbridge 1582 · Malvern Town 1452

	Uxbridge	Draw	Malvern Town
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uxbridge (rating 1582 vs 1452).
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uxbridge	Malvern Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	1.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.40▼	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +44’	1.53	4.20	4.50
14:17 +5’	1.40▼	4.50▲	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	7	2	3	24	14	23
5	Bath City	12	7	2	3	18	10	23
6	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
7	Chichester City	12	6	1	5	20	20	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	5	3	4	19	14	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
10	Taunton Town	11	5	1	5	28	25	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
14	Evesham United	12	4	1	7	15	24	13
15	Basingstoke	12	3	3	6	19	25	12
16	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	12	3	2	7	19	31	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	2	2	7	10	24	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uxbridge	Malvern Town
Basingstoke	2-1 W	1-4 L
Wimborne Town	0-0 D	0-3 L
Bath City	2-1 W	1-2 L
Gosport Borough	1-1 D	2-4 L
Chippenham Town	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Uxbridge (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uxbridge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
15/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
12/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
31/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-4	–	–	W
15/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-4	7	1	L
22/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uxbridge vs Malvern Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Uxbridge win (64%). Probabilities: Uxbridge 64%, draw 20%, Malvern Town 16%.

How many goals are expected in Uxbridge vs Malvern Town?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Uxbridge 2.49 · Malvern Town 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Uxbridge vs Malvern Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.