Football · England Southern Premier League South · 24/10, 20:45

Prediction: Basingstoke vs Plymouth Parkway

Team pages: Basingstoke · Plymouth Parkway

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Basingstoke1.28

Plymouth Parkway1.65

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Basingstoke Draw Plymouth Parkway

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Basingstoke 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDLWLL

Plymouth Parkway 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Basingstoke 2–2–2 Plymouth Parkway (6 last)

Plymouth Parkway3-0Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-1Plymouth Parkway
Basingstoke0-1Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway1-3Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-0Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway1-1Basingstoke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basingstoke 1457 · Plymouth Parkway 1581

	Basingstoke	Draw	Plymouth Parkway
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth Parkway (rating 1457 vs 1581).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basingstoke	Plymouth Parkway
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 2	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +48’	3.00	3.75	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Basingstoke 2–2–2 Plymouth Parkway

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	3-0 HT 2-0	Basingstoke
23/08/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-1	Plymouth Parkway
04/01/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	0-1	Plymouth Parkway
10/08/24 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-3	Basingstoke
24/02/24 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-0 HT 0-0	Plymouth Parkway
21/10/23 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-1 HT 1-1	Basingstoke

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	23	8	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	25	15	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	23	21	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	25	18	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	20	9	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	19	17	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	13	27	14
14	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	16	25	13
15	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
16	Sholing	11	3	3	5	13	17	12
17	Basingstoke	12	3	3	6	19	25	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	13	2	3	8	18	26	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basingstoke	Plymouth Parkway
Havant and W	1-4 L	2-1 W
Gloucester	1-1 D	1-1 D
Bath City	1-1 D	1-1 D
Poole Town	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basingstoke

WDLWDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
13/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-4	6	3	L
10/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
19/09	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-4	–	–	L
22/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Plymouth Parkway

DLWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basingstoke vs Plymouth Parkway?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plymouth Parkway win (46%). Probabilities: Basingstoke 29%, draw 25%, Plymouth Parkway 46%.

How many goals are expected in Basingstoke vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Basingstoke 1.28 · Plymouth Parkway 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Basingstoke vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.