Football · England Southern Premier League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Basingstoke vs Uxbridge

Team pages: Basingstoke · Uxbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Basingstoke1.15

Uxbridge1.68

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Basingstoke Draw Uxbridge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Basingstoke 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLWLLW

Uxbridge 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Basingstoke 0–1–2 Uxbridge (3 last)

Uxbridge2-1Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-1Uxbridge
Uxbridge2-1Basingstoke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basingstoke 1476 · Uxbridge 1591

	Basingstoke	Draw	Uxbridge
Our model	25%	26%	48%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uxbridge (rating 1476 vs 1591).
H2H favours Uxbridge: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basingstoke	Uxbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 2	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.75

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +5’	3.40	3.75	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Basingstoke 0–1–2 Uxbridge

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League South	Uxbridge	2-1 HT 1-0	Basingstoke
31/01/26 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-1	Uxbridge
11/10/25 England Southern Premier League South	Uxbridge	2-1 HT 1-1	Basingstoke

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	23	8	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	25	15	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	26	14	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	23	21	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	25	18	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	20	9	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	19	17	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
13	Basingstoke	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	13	27	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	16	25	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	13	17	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	13	2	3	8	18	26	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basingstoke	Uxbridge
Gosport Borough	0-4 L	1-1 D
Havant and W	1-4 L	2-0 W
Malvern Town	4-1 W	3-0 W
Taunton Town	3-4 L	5-4 W
Bath City	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Uxbridge (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basingstoke

DLWDDLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
13/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-4	6	3	L
10/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
19/09	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-4	–	–	L
22/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Uxbridge

WDWWDWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
15/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
12/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
31/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-4	–	–	W
15/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basingstoke vs Uxbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Uxbridge win (49%). Probabilities: Basingstoke 26%, draw 25%, Uxbridge 49%.

How many goals are expected in Basingstoke vs Uxbridge?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Basingstoke 1.15 · Uxbridge 1.68), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Basingstoke vs Uxbridge?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.